HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  </li>
<li>The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.</li>
<li>CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  
The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.
CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Virgin Australia Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia (VAH AU)</a> IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.
Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>In this cut, we revisit memory stocks' stellar year, unpack results from <em>the best pure-play gaming franchise</em>, and spotlight airline stocks poised for lift-off.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma. 
In this cut, we revisit memory stocks' stellar year, unpack results from the best pure-play gaming franchise, and spotlight airline stocks poised for lift-off.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

<ul><li>Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.</li><li>Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.</li><li>Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.</li></ul>

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Delta Air Lines' recent financial results for the June quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture of performance, underscored by robust operational execution and challenging market dynamics.</li><li>The company reported a pretax income of $1.8 billion, or earnings of $2.10 per share, on record quarterly revenue of $15.5 billion, which was in line with its April guidance.</li><li>Despite economic uncertainties, the airline achieved an operating margin of 13.2% and generated $700 million in free cash flow, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.</li></ul>

Delta Air Lines' recent financial results for the June quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture of performance, underscored by robust operational execution and challenging market dynamics.The company reported a pretax income of $1.8 billion, or earnings of $2.10 per share, on record quarterly revenue of $15.5 billion, which was in line with its April guidance.Despite economic uncertainties, the airline achieved an operating margin of 13.2% and generated $700 million in free cash flow, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Delta Air Lines: Its Positive Outlook On Corporate Travel & Sector Demand May Not Be ENOUGH To Warrant Optimism!

United States

Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers, freight, and mail over a network of routes throughout the United States and internationally.

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Delta Air Lines (DAL US)

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): A Good Start

CX's FY25 net profit of HK$10.8bn (+9.5% YoY) has beaten market expectations widely, as it is 19.1% ahead of the consensus forecast. With a second...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

This Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Pranav Rao

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Delta Air Lines: Its Positive Outlook On Corporate Travel & Sector Demand May Not Be ENOUGH To Warrant Optimism!

Delta Air Lines' recent financial results for the June quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture of performance, underscored by robust operational...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Cathay Pacific (293 HK): A Good Start

CX's FY25 net profit of HK$10.8bn (+9.5% YoY) has beaten market expectations widely, as it is 19.1% ahead of the consensus forecast. With a second...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

This ​Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Pranav Rao

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Delta Air Lines: Its Positive Outlook On Corporate Travel & Sector Demand May Not Be ENOUGH To Warrant Optimism!

Delta Air Lines' recent financial results for the June quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture of performance, underscored by robust operational...

Baptista Research

This Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.