IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the first closing date of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> offer, Fudosan unsurprisingly extended the close, but surprisingly, voluntarily disclosed the level of acceptances.</li>
<li>At first glance, the disclosure of acceptances was an own goal, as the shares reached new highs, giving Elliott a gift to strengthen its call to reject the offer.</li>
<li>Alternatively, Fudosan’s disclosure could be a shrewd move to signal that its likely endgame (bump marginally above 3Q book value and possibly lower minimum) will succeed.  </li>
</ul>


At the first closing date of the Toyota Industries (6201 JP) offer, Fudosan unsurprisingly extended the close, but surprisingly, voluntarily disclosed the level of acceptances.
At first glance, the disclosure of acceptances was an own goal, as the shares reached new highs, giving Elliott a gift to strengthen its call to reject the offer.
Alternatively, Fudosan’s disclosure could be a shrewd move to signal that its likely endgame (bump marginally above 3Q book value and possibly lower minimum) will succeed.  


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Disclosure of Acceptances an Own Goal or a Shrewd Move?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week as the Tender Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a></strong> closes today. Will Fudosan extend? Possibly. Will they bump? Unlikely. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week as the Tender Offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) closes today. Will Fudosan extend? Possibly. Will they bump? Unlikely. 
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: On Toyota Inds (6201 JP)'s Last Day Of Offer

<ul>
<li>The first closing date of Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is 12 February. Shares continue to trade above terms.</li>
<li>Ahead of the first close, internal and external factors have continued to underscore that the offer is light.</li>
<li>There are several potential scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and additional irrevocables. The least likely scenario is successful completion.</li>
</ul>


The first closing date of Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is 12 February. Shares continue to trade above terms.
Ahead of the first close, internal and external factors have continued to underscore that the offer is light.
There are several potential scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and additional irrevocables. The least likely scenario is successful completion.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Scenarios Ahead of the First Close

Equity Capital Markets

Shin Etsu Chemical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.0 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 6.3% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,476 per share (27 January).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Shin Etsu's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.0 billion secondary offering, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)’s shares have declined 6.3% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,476 per share (27 January).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Shin Etsu's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): The Current Playbook

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we review our hits and misses across the key Asian geographies of China, Japan and India</li>
<li>We review the our top performing ideas in each geography and key reasons for the stock price movement.</li>
<li>Similarly we review the underperformers in each geography and present the likely reasons for the same.</li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we review our hits and misses across the key Asian geographies of China, Japan and India
We review the our top performing ideas in each geography and key reasons for the stock price movement.
Similarly we review the underperformers in each geography and present the likely reasons for the same.


2025: A Review of Our Hits and Misses Across Japan, China and India

Japan

DENSO CORPORATION manufactures electronic parts for automobiles.  The Company's products include automobile air conditioners, air bags, ignition systems, generators, power steering systems, and spark plugs with iridium electrode. The Company also produces communication equipment for mobile navigation system.

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Denso Corp (6902 JP)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Disclosure of Acceptances an Own Goal or a Shrewd Move?

At first glance, the acceptance disclosure was an own goal. However, it could be a shrewd move to signal that Fudosan's likely endgame (bump...

Arun George

StubWorld: On Toyota Inds (6201 JP)'s Last Day Of Offer

Don’t tender. If in, stay in. Get involved if not in. Fudosan may extend. But don’t expect a bump. Fudosan has made it clear it will not offer a...

David Blennerhassett

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Scenarios Ahead of the First Close

The endgame is a bump, but there are several scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and add....

Arun George

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

2025: A Review of Our Hits and Misses Across Japan, China and India

Indian auto stocks such as Maruti Suzuki and M&M have corrected meaningfully in recent weeks.Like last year,these stocks are now offering...

Sreemant Dudhoria

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