Analyst, Schoolhouse Solutions

Daniel Su

Analyst

Schoolhouse Solutions

Schoolhouse is a strategy and research provider for the Education sector. We publish differentiated reports and bespoke research on the sector, focused on private and public companies in Asia-Pacific. Our team has decades of experience working with Education companies ranging from K-12 to Tertiary and Edtech.

Strategy and Research Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The education sector remains resilient despite headline privatisations, with market cap only slightly down to US$142bn after the removal of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/powerschool-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36946:1" rel="noopener">PowerSchool Holdings (PWSC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/instructure-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26502:1" rel="noopener">Instructure Holdings (INST US)</a>.</li>
<li>AI disruption is reshaping the landscape, with key players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chegg-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10114:1" rel="noopener">Chegg Inc (CHGG US)</a> collapsing while innovators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duolingo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33531:1" rel="noopener">Duolingo (DUOL US)</a> surge, highlighting a potential shift in investor focus.</li>
<li>M&amp;A and IPO activity is reawakening, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kindercare-learning-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35721:1" rel="noopener">KinderCare Learning (KLC US)</a> 's IPO, India's robust upcoming pipeline, and renewed private equity interest pointing to a cyclical upturn.</li>
</ul>


The education sector remains resilient despite headline privatisations, with market cap only slightly down to US$142bn after the removal of PowerSchool Holdings (PWSC US) and Instructure Holdings (INST US).
AI disruption is reshaping the landscape, with key players like Chegg Inc (CHGG US) collapsing while innovators like Duolingo (DUOL US) surge, highlighting a potential shift in investor focus.
M&amp;A and IPO activity is reawakening, with KinderCare Learning (KLC US) 's IPO, India's robust upcoming pipeline, and renewed private equity interest pointing to a cyclical upturn.


Valuations, Visas & Venture Pullback: An Equity + M&A Overview of the Education Sector in Q1 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Continuing the trend from last week's report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.</li>
<li>As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.</li>
<li>While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.</li>
</ul>


Continuing the trend from last week's report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.
As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.
While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.


Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Super Micro Computer / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.</li>
<li>Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. </li>
<li>The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

United States

Adtalem Global Education Inc. owns and manages higher education institution. The Institution offers undergraduate and graduate programs in healthcare, law, business management, engineering and technology, sciences, liberal and media arts, and nursing. Adtalem Global Education serves students worldwide.

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Adtalem Global Education (ATGE US)

Valuations, Visas & Venture Pullback: An Equity + M&A Overview of the Education Sector in Q1 2025

Education sector resilient post-privatisations, AI disruption reshaping landscape, M&A/IPO activity reawakening - potential shift in investor focus.

Daniel Su

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels from here to 5910, But Stay Short-Term Bullish if Above 20-DMA and 21-EMAs. Still bullish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

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Valuations, Visas & Venture Pullback: An Equity + M&A Overview of the Education Sector in Q1 2025

​Education sector resilient post-privatisations, AI disruption reshaping landscape, M&A/IPO activity reawakening - potential shift in investor focus.

Daniel Su

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels from here to 5910, But Stay Short-Term Bullish if Above 20-DMA and 21-EMAs. Still bullish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

Education sector resilient post-privatisations, AI disruption reshaping landscape, M&A/IPO activity reawakening - potential shift in investor focus.