Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese carpooling platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> has refiled for an IPO on the HKEx for the second time (in 2020 and 2021) and could raise around US$200m through the IPO.</li>
<li>Dida’s last two attempts were not successful and some news media outlets reported that Dida has got assurance from regulators to go ahead with the IPO.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the new data points from the company’s latest IPO filings.</li>
</ul>


Chinese carpooling platform Dida (DIDA HK) has refiled for an IPO on the HKEx for the second time (in 2020 and 2021) and could raise around US$200m through the IPO.
Dida’s last two attempts were not successful and some news media outlets reported that Dida has got assurance from regulators to go ahead with the IPO.
In this insight, we take a look at the new data points from the company’s latest IPO filings.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. The <em>DiDi Chuxing</em> app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (12.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> (6.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>. </p><p>Didi has priced its IPO at $14.00 per ADS, which is at the top-end of the IPO price range of $13.00-14.00 per ADS, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/chinas-didi-raises-4-billion-us-ipo-source-2021-06-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Reuters</a>. Reuters also noted that Didi sold a higher 317 million ADS versus the planned 288 million ADS (10% more), resulting in a fully-diluted market cap of $73 billion ($67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis).</p><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-xiaoju-kuaizhi-initiation-in-for-a-bumpy-ride" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53014" rel="noopener">Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?</a>, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xiaoju-kuaizhi-didi-chuxing-ipo-growth-vs-margin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53232" rel="noopener">Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin</a>, we examined the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lyft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1" rel="noopener">Lyft Inc (LYFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>. Our analysis showed that Didi offered a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. We concluded that in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-global-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53626" rel="noopener">DiDi Global IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the proposed IPO valuation is materially below the previously rumoured top-end valuation of $100 billion. In combination with our SoTP valuation, we opined that Didi is fairly valued at the IPO price range.   </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our relative valuation suggests that the IPO price is full. Updating for the final IPO raise and the latest peer multiples, our SoTP valuation is $13.54 per ADS, which is marginally below the IPO price of $14 per ADS. Consequently, we would take profits on any meaningful first day IPO pop.</p></div>
</div>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. The DiDi Chuxing app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), Uber (UBER US) (12.8%), Tencent (700 HK) (6.8%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP). Didi has priced its IPO at $14.00 per ADS, which is at the top-end of the IPO price range of $13.00-14.00 per ADS, according to Reuters. Reuters also noted that Didi sold a higher 317 million ADS versus the planned 288 million ADS (10% more), resulting in a fully-diluted market cap of $73 billion ($67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis).In Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. 
In Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin, we examined the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, Lyft Inc (LYFT US) and Grab (0967655D SP). Our analysis showed that Didi offered a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. We concluded that in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.
In DiDi Global IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the proposed IPO valuation is materially below the previously rumoured top-end valuation of $100 billion. In combination with our SoTP valuation, we opined that Didi is fairly valued at the IPO price range.   
Our relative valuation suggests that the IPO price is full. Updating for the final IPO raise and the latest peer multiples, our SoTP valuation is $13.54 per ADS, which is marginally below the IPO price of $14 per ADS. Consequently, we would take profits on any meaningful first day IPO pop.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Full Truck Alliance   / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> (FTA),  China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$1.6bn via a US listing. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.</p></div><div>
<p>In our earlier notes, we spoke about various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-the-positives-category-leader" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-the-positives-category-leader" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Positives - Category Leader, </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-the-negatives-still-a-mixed-bag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Mixed Bag,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-valuation-even-the-previous-round-might-have-been-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - Valuation, Even the Previous Round Might Have Been a Stretch, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-ipo-decent-investor-line-up-at-best-a-punt-at-these-valuations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance IPO - Decent Investor Line-Up, at Best a Punt at These Valuations</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</p>
</div>

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) (FTA),  China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$1.6bn via a US listing. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.
In our earlier notes, we spoke about various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:

Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Positives - Category Leader, 
Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Mixed Bag,
Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - Valuation, Even the Previous Round Might Have Been a Stretch, and
Full Truck Alliance IPO - Decent Investor Line-Up, at Best a Punt at These Valuations

In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Full Truck Alliance IPO Trading - Have to Do a Bull Case to Find Some Upside

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>/Xiaoju Kuaizhi is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. Xiaoju Kuaizhi is best known for its <em>DiDi Chuxing</em> app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is seeking to raise as much as $10 billion through a US listing, according to press reports. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (12.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> (6.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-xiaoju-kuaizhi-initiation-in-for-a-bumpy-ride" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53014" rel="noopener">Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?</a>, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. </p><p>Today, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/exclusive-chinas-ipo-bound-didi-probed-antitrust-violations-sources-2021-06-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that China's market regulator (SAMR) has begun an antitrust probe into Didi. SAMR is examining if Didi used any competitive practices that squeezed out smaller rivals unfairly. The regulator is also examining whether the pricing mechanism used by Didi's china mobility business is sufficiently transparent. Didi declined to comment on "<em>unsubstantiated speculation from unnamed source(s).</em>"</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we examine the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lyft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1" rel="noopener">Lyft Inc (LYFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>. Our analysis suggests that Didi offers a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. Overall, in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.   </p></div>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)/Xiaoju Kuaizhi is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. Xiaoju Kuaizhi is best known for its DiDi Chuxing app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is seeking to raise as much as $10 billion through a US listing, according to press reports. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), Uber (UBER US) (12.8%), Tencent (700 HK) (6.8%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP). In Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. Today, Reuters reported that China's market regulator (SAMR) has begun an antitrust probe into Didi. SAMR is examining if Didi used any competitive practices that squeezed out smaller rivals unfairly. The regulator is also examining whether the pricing mechanism used by Didi's china mobility business is sufficiently transparent. Didi declined to comment on "unsubstantiated speculation from unnamed source(s)."In this note, we examine the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, Lyft Inc (LYFT US) and Grab (0967655D SP). Our analysis suggests that Didi offers a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. Overall, in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.   

Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> (FTA),  China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, aims to raise up to US$1.6bn via a US listing. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.</p></div><div><p>In our earlier notes, we spoke about the positive and negatives aspects of the deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-the-positives-category-leader" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Positives - Category Leader</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-the-negatives-still-a-mixed-bag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Mixed Bag,</a> as well as valuations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-pre-ipo-valuation-even-the-previous-round-might-have-been-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - Valuation, Even the Previous Round Might Have Been a Stretch</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework. </p></div>

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) (FTA),  China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, aims to raise up to US$1.6bn via a US listing. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.In our earlier notes, we spoke about the positive and negatives aspects of the deal, Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Positives - Category Leader and Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Still a Mixed Bag, as well as valuations in Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO - Valuation, Even the Previous Round Might Have Been a Stretch.In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework. 

Full Truck Alliance IPO - Decent Investor Line-Up, at Best a Punt at These Valuations

China

Dida offers carpooling and online taxi hailing services in China

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dida (DIDA HK)

Dida Pre-IPO: Losing Its Dominance

Dida has refiled for an IPO on HKEx. IPO prospectus reveals that company is losing its dominance as the largest carpooling player in China as the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

DiDi Global IPO: Trading Debut

Didi has priced its IPO at $14 per ADS and sold 10% more ADSs than planned. Our relative valuation and SoTP valuation suggests a full price. We...

Arun George

Full Truck Alliance IPO Trading - Have to Do a Bull Case to Find Some Upside

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$1.6bn via a US listing....

Sumeet Singh

Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin

We examine the key financial metrics of Didi to the relevant business units of its peers. Overall, in combination with the ongoing regulatory...

Arun George

Full Truck Alliance IPO - Decent Investor Line-Up, at Best a Punt at These Valuations

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, aims to raise up to US$1.6bn via a US listing....

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)