Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's Int'l Compass (Sept. 2), we highlighted emerging markets (EEM-US, Shanghai Comp) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) as areas of bullish interest, with short-term bullish inflections suggesting the tide was turning in favor of these markets. This remains the focus in today's report, and especially on Japan; bullish price inflections and breakouts have started to proliferate, which suggests this could be the start of a broad-based rally for Japan in the weeks and months ahead.

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>’s shares have been trading above Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a>’s preconditional binding offer of JPY3,384 (if KDDI agrees to a share buyback, the offer is at JPY3,500).</li>
<li>I previously opined that the probability of a bidding war is low. However, disclosure on 2 July showed that EQT increased its offer to JPY3,300 on 22 June.</li>
<li>EQT can match Bain/LY’s JPY3,500 offer with a modest 2.4% increase to the effective cost of its 22 June offer. If it matches Bain/LY's effective cost, EQT can offer JPY3,643.</li>
</ul>



Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)’s shares have been trading above Bain/LY (4689 JP)’s preconditional binding offer of JPY3,384 (if KDDI agrees to a share buyback, the offer is at JPY3,500).
I previously opined that the probability of a bidding war is low. However, disclosure on 2 July showed that EQT increased its offer to JPY3,300 on 22 June.
EQT can match Bain/LY’s JPY3,500 offer with a modest 2.4% increase to the effective cost of its 22 June offer. If it matches Bain/LY's effective cost, EQT can offer JPY3,643.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Rethinking the Arb Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>. Don't sell yet. And definitely stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16273:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Corp (6392 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14358:1" rel="noopener">Edion Corp (2730 JP)</a> combination gives both a platform. What they do with it is the question that the initial announcement left entirely unanswered.</li>
<li>At a multi-year low implied stub; and an all-time low simple ratio (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8553:1" rel="noopener">YTL (YTL MK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-power-international-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1239:1" rel="noopener">YTL Power (YTLP MK)</a>), if you can set up the stub here cleanly, do so.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP). Don't sell yet. And definitely stay long Digital Garage (4819 JP).
The Yamada Corp (6392 JP)/Edion Corp (2730 JP) combination gives both a platform. What they do with it is the question that the initial announcement left entirely unanswered.
At a multi-year low implied stub; and an all-time low simple ratio (YTL (YTL MK)/YTL Power (YTLP MK)), if you can set up the stub here cleanly, do so.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Digital Garage/Kakaku.com, Yamada Corp/Edion Corp, YTL/YTL Power, Strategy

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>I wrote about Bain/LY having shown their cards on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> on 2 July. Just before I published (but after it went to compliance), Kakaku responded. </li>
<li>Kakaku's response was an exercise in good governance. It was an anti-FujiSoft situation. It was very welcome. Investors should appreciate this and learn from it.</li>
<li>EQT+DG Consortium has bid ¥3,300 unofficially but that's about ¥3,415 equivalent. My bet is they will go higher. And Bain+LY will too (theirs is equivalent ¥3,640 if DG gives up).</li>
</ul>


I wrote about Bain/LY having shown their cards on Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) on 2 July. Just before I published (but after it went to compliance), Kakaku responded. 
Kakaku's response was an exercise in good governance. It was an anti-FujiSoft situation. It was very welcome. Investors should appreciate this and learn from it.
EQT+DG Consortium has bid ¥3,300 unofficially but that's about ¥3,415 equivalent. My bet is they will go higher. And Bain+LY will too (theirs is equivalent ¥3,640 if DG gives up).


[Japan M&A] Kakaku Governance A Shining Example; Bain+LY and EQT+DG May Fight Longer

<ul>
<li>I tally 29 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> had finalised plans to take its system integrator subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a> private.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 29 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: that Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) had finalised plans to take its system integrator subsidiary Dentsu Soken (4812 JP) private.
Key updates/news also took place on: Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), and Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Info Services Intl Dentsu, Perpetual, Atlas Arteria, Qube, Nippon Dry Chem

Japan

Digital Garage, Inc. is a web solution provider and a business incubator.  The Company provides Internet communications and strategy planning, electronic commerce solution tools, web creation and enhancement, and Internet advertising consulting services.

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Digital Garage (4819 JP)

Buy Japan On This Breakout ; TOPIX Breaking Out To 21-Year Highs; Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors

Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) was a big focus for us last week, and it remains the focus in today's report; this could be the start of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Rethinking the Arb Trade

The EQT offer is a structurally lower-cost proposal than Bain/LY’s on a like-for-like basis. EQT bid JPY3,300 on 22 June and can match Bain/LY’s...

Arun George

Last Week In Event SPACE: Digital Garage/Kakaku.com, Yamada Corp/Edion Corp, YTL/YTL Power, Strategy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A] Kakaku Governance A Shining Example; Bain+LY and EQT+DG May Fight Longer

Kakaku has reached ¥3,650 which was my last target. I think given the nuances of who is bidding how much and how means we should think this goes...

Travis Lundy

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Info Services Intl Dentsu, Perpetual, Atlas Arteria, Qube, Nippon Dry Chem

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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