Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).</li></ul></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery - While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery - While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

<div><ul><li>Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Our discretionary </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).</span></li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery: While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy - Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly impacted by Omicron) in Q4FY22 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 15/17% respectively).Ex-jewellery, margin recovery to lag revenue recovery: While profitability is recovering across categories, (1) high commodity prices, (2) restoration of rent/other SG&amp;A overheads coupled with intermittent demand disruptions are likely to keep margins (ex-jewellery) under pressure.Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest the following: (1) in F&amp;G, international e-tailers, Reliance Retail, and quick commerce players have been improving their assortment availability and pricing mechanisms.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> are likely inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P SENSEX INDEX</a> in June while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> could be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> could be added depending on sector balance while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is a close delete on liquidity.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Tata Motors could result in the discount on the DVR line <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> narrowing versus the common shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) are likely inclusions to the S&amp;P SENSEX INDEX in June while Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) could be deleted.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) could be added depending on sector balance while Nestle India (NEST IN) is a close delete on liquidity.
The inclusion of Tata Motors could result in the discount on the DVR line Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) narrowing versus the common shares Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN). 


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN)</a> announced a steady growth across all key operating metrics in both the Beauty and Fashion verticals for the quarter ending 31st December 2021.</li>
<li>Steady operating performance was helped by favorable macro (normalization in economic activity) and supportive sector-specific factors (Diwali, wedding season) as well as aggressive marketing (now 14% of revenues).</li>
<li>Despite an 83% growth in 9MFY22 GMV and a resultant 89% growth in gross profits, EBITDA grew only 11% as increased marketing spend consumed most of the margin upside.</li>
</ul>



FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN) announced a steady growth across all key operating metrics in both the Beauty and Fashion verticals for the quarter ending 31st December 2021.
Steady operating performance was helped by favorable macro (normalization in economic activity) and supportive sector-specific factors (Diwali, wedding season) as well as aggressive marketing (now 14% of revenues).
Despite an 83% growth in 9MFY22 GMV and a resultant 89% growth in gross profits, EBITDA grew only 11% as increased marketing spend consumed most of the margin upside.


FSN E-Comm (NYKAA IN): Macro, Micro & Marketing Drive Metric Growth

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

Brian Freitas

Consumer Discretionary - Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy: Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Recovery trends in discretionary categories are healthy; Our discretionary universe is expected to clock 11/2% revenue/EBITDA growth YoY (partly...

HDFC Securities

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

Tata Motors could replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the June rebalance. Hindalco is a close add while Nestle is a close delete. The inclusion of...

Brian Freitas

FSN E-Comm (NYKAA IN): Macro, Micro & Marketing Drive Metric Growth

Nykaa's 9MFY22 operating performance is in line with expectations but helped by strong marketing expenses. Valuations appear stretched beyond...

Devi Subhakesan

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