External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Discretionary categories to clock another healthy quarter: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~14/% YoY (revenue) in Q3FY23 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17/12% resp)</li><li>Ticket sizes in retail remain elevated, courtesy of higher ASP vis-à-vis pre-pandemic levels. Footfall density is normalising too</li><li>Jewellery, paints, apparel, and footwear are expected to clock 22%, 17%, 12%, and 6% (three-year CAGRs).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Discretionary categories to clock another healthy quarter: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~14/% YoY (revenue) in Q3FY23 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17/12% resp)Ticket sizes in retail remain elevated, courtesy of higher ASP vis-à-vis pre-pandemic levels. Footfall density is normalising tooJewellery, paints, apparel, and footwear are expected to clock 22%, 17%, 12%, and 6% (three-year CAGRs).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary (Q3FY23 Results Preview) - Healthy Quarter!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Avenue Supermarts: Revenue grew 24.7% (three-year CAGR: 18.7%), while sales density remained lower than the pre-pandemic level (~INR35.9k/sq ft vs INR38.7k/sq ft in Q3FY20; in-line)</li><li>Low discretionary purchases keep underlying profitability/unit economics subdued</li><li>FMCG/staples continued to outpace the GM &amp; apparel category</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Avenue Supermarts: Revenue grew 24.7% (three-year CAGR: 18.7%), while sales density remained lower than the pre-pandemic level (~INR35.9k/sq ft vs INR38.7k/sq ft in Q3FY20; in-line)Low discretionary purchases keep underlying profitability/unit economics subduedFMCG/staples continued to outpace the GM &amp; apparel categoryContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avenue Supermarts - Underlying Profitability Disappoints

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The lower salience of the high-margin general merchandise and apparel category impacted its overall profitability growth in Q3FY23.</li><li>We believe the company’s overall quality of sales and margin profile is likely to recover in FY24 as the company passes on the RM benefits through price reduction and increase grammage as well as due to the RBI’s intervention to curtail overall inflation which will lead to the overall improvement in throughput.</li><li>We recommend a wait-and-watch approach as we look for demand recovery triggers</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The lower salience of the high-margin general merchandise and apparel category impacted its overall profitability growth in Q3FY23.We believe the company’s overall quality of sales and margin profile is likely to recover in FY24 as the company passes on the RM benefits through price reduction and increase grammage as well as due to the RBI’s intervention to curtail overall inflation which will lead to the overall improvement in throughput.We recommend a wait-and-watch approach as we look for demand recovery triggersContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) - Discretionary Yet to Recover Fully

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.</li>
</ul>


A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) replacing Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN). 

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.

Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>An unprecedented pace of expansion is underway at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd</a> (a TATA group company) with the rapid roll-out of Zudio, a youth-fashion retail store chain across India, beyond big cities.</li>
<li>STAR Bazaar, its 50:50 JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22187:1" rel="noopener">Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)</a>, in grocery retail, has the potential to drive long term growth given the segment's immense size and scope. </li>
<li>Trent could emerge as one of the leading players in India's fast-growing organized retail sector as it rapidly expands its pan-India network in apparel and plans to grow in grocery. </li>
</ul>


An unprecedented pace of expansion is underway at Trent Ltd (a TATA group company) with the rapid roll-out of Zudio, a youth-fashion retail store chain across India, beyond big cities.
STAR Bazaar, its 50:50 JV with Tesco PLC (TSCO LN), in grocery retail, has the potential to drive long term growth given the segment's immense size and scope. 
Trent could emerge as one of the leading players in India's fast-growing organized retail sector as it rapidly expands its pan-India network in apparel and plans to grow in grocery. 


2023 High Conviction: Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) - Transformational Growth in Progress.

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

Consumer Discretionary (Q3FY23 Results Preview) - Healthy Quarter!

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~14/% YoY (revenue) in Q3FY23 (three-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17/12% resp)

HDFC Securities

Avenue Supermarts - Underlying Profitability Disappoints

Revenue grew 24.7% (three-year CAGR: 18.7%), while sales density remained lower than the pre-pandemic level (~INR35.9k/sq ft vs INR38.7k/sq ft in...

HDFC Securities

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) - Discretionary Yet to Recover Fully

The lower salience of the high-margin general merchandise and apparel category impacted its overall profitability growth in Q3FY23.

Axis Direct

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

Adani Enterprises could replace Wipro in the Sensex in June. Adani Enterprises could move lower in the short-term due to the public offering. Wipro...

Brian Freitas

2023 High Conviction: Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) - Transformational Growth in Progress.

Trent can emerge as one of the leading players in India's fast-growing organized retail segment; Better visibility and conviction of growth from...

Devi Subhakesan

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