Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P GSCI (GSG) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF) are the two key benchmarks for commodity investing, but both track futures contracts, not spot prices.</li>
<li>Over 10 years, spot oil, copper, and gold rose strongly, yet these indices delivered flat to negative returns due to roll yield drag, rebalancing, and higher fees.</li>
<li>They work best as tactical inflation hedges — GSCI for high-beta oil exposure, BCOM for more diversified commodity exposure — not as long-term compounding assets.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P GSCI (GSG) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF) are the two key benchmarks for commodity investing, but both track futures contracts, not spot prices.
Over 10 years, spot oil, copper, and gold rose strongly, yet these indices delivered flat to negative returns due to roll yield drag, rebalancing, and higher fees.
They work best as tactical inflation hedges — GSCI for high-beta oil exposure, BCOM for more diversified commodity exposure — not as long-term compounding assets.


Understanding Commodity Indices: S&P GSCI (GSG) Vs Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF)

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

<ul><li>Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropping by 4.5%.</li><li>These declines were primarily driven by the significant sell-offs in major technology stocks and limited followthrough on anticipated stimulus measures from Beijing.</li><li>In the U.S. market, both the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ appeared set to close the month with gains stemming from expectations of tamer monetary policies and positive data (YoY inflation printing lower at 2.4% and YoY unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%), signalling a “soft landing”. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropping by 4.5%.These declines were primarily driven by the significant sell-offs in major technology stocks and limited followthrough on anticipated stimulus measures from Beijing.In the U.S. market, both the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ appeared set to close the month with gains stemming from expectations of tamer monetary policies and positive data (YoY inflation printing lower at 2.4% and YoY unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%), signalling a “soft landing”. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, and Bank of Japan.</li><li>The dovish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which initiated a 50-bps rate cut after 14 months of holding rates steady, fueled positive sentiments across some markets, pushing the MSCI World Index up by 1.69%.</li><li>Elsewhere, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 6.45%, supported by Chinese stimulus efforts.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, and Bank of Japan.The dovish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which initiated a 50-bps rate cut after 14 months of holding rates steady, fueled positive sentiments across some markets, pushing the MSCI World Index up by 1.69%.Elsewhere, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 6.45%, supported by Chinese stimulus efforts.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI INDEX)

Understanding Commodity Indices: S&P GSCI (GSG) Vs Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF)

Key commodity indices like S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index track futures contracts, not spot prices, leading to flat to negative returns...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Monthly Equities - October 2024

Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index...

CardinalStone

Monthly Equities - September 2024

In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal...

CardinalStone

Understanding Commodity Indices: S&P GSCI (GSG) Vs Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF)

​Key commodity indices like S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index track futures contracts, not spot prices, leading to flat to negative returns...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Monthly Equities - October 2024

Global equity markets continued their bearish trend in October, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.3% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index...

CardinalStone

Monthly Equities - September 2024

In September, global equities performances were largely shaped by key monetary policy decisions of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal...

CardinalStone

Key commodity indices like S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index track futures contracts, not spot prices, leading to flat to negative returns...

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...