Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>To start, the 2023 and 10 years Total Returns &amp; CAGR of the big 3 indices: sentiment is very positive, risk appetite is on and we have a new bull market.</li><li>Let’s start with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).</li><li>Created in 1896, is one of the oldest &amp; most widely recognized stock market indices in the world &amp; and is made up of 30 blue-chip stocks that are considered leaders in their respective industries.</li></ul>

To start, the 2023 and 10 years Total Returns &amp; CAGR of the big 3 indices: sentiment is very positive, risk appetite is on and we have a new bull market.Let’s start with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).Created in 1896, is one of the oldest &amp; most widely recognized stock market indices in the world &amp; and is made up of 30 blue-chip stocks that are considered leaders in their respective industries.

Maverick Valuations #2 - USA: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 & The Mighty S&P 500

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index has plunged by 14% during the last month, casting an ominous cloud over the much-anticipated soft landing that investors have been hoping for.</li>
<li>The ongoing decline in commodity prices, down 26% from their peak, now suggests an implied US recession probability of 68%. </li>
<li>And in our updated US Recession Scoreboard, the recent dip in copper mirrors a somewhat elevated, yet increasing, chance of a US recession. </li>
</ul>


The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index has plunged by 14% during the last month, casting an ominous cloud over the much-anticipated soft landing that investors have been hoping for.
The ongoing decline in commodity prices, down 26% from their peak, now suggests an implied US recession probability of 68%. 
And in our updated US Recession Scoreboard, the recent dip in copper mirrors a somewhat elevated, yet increasing, chance of a US recession. 


Industrial Metal Prices Melt as Global Recession Fears Heat Up

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.</li>
<li>The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.</li>
<li>The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. </li>
</ul>


There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.
The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.
The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. 


When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

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Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,611/1,630 points and the support at 1,600/1,592 points.</li><li>We suggest trading buy on SAWAD, CBG and BGRIM.</li><li>Technically, the index is likely to move up to test the major resistance at 1,611 points, and surpassing this level would lead to more buy signs.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,611/1,630 points and the support at 1,600/1,592 points.We suggest trading buy on SAWAD, CBG and BGRIM.Technically, the index is likely to move up to test the major resistance at 1,611 points, and surpassing this level would lead to more buy signs.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,610/1,630 points and the support at 1,593/1,586 points.</li><li>We recommend trading buy on KKP, KBANK, and SINGER.</li><li>Technically, the index may correct in the short term before moving up to test 1,610 points. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,610/1,630 points and the support at 1,593/1,586 points.We recommend trading buy on KKP, KBANK, and SINGER.Technically, the index may correct in the short term before moving up to test 1,610 points. 

Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI INDEX)

Maverick Valuations #2 - USA: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 & The Mighty S&P 500

To start, the 2023 and 10 years Total Returns & CAGR of the big 3 indices: sentiment is very positive, risk appetite is on and we have a new bull...

Maverick Equity Research

Industrial Metal Prices Melt as Global Recession Fears Heat Up

The decline in industrial metal prices, particularly copper, suggests an increasing risk of a US recession and a challenging outlook for equity...

Jeroen Blokland

When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Empirical data since 1970 reveals that US Equities and Treasuries perform well after a peak in inflation, while Commodities and Gold lag.

Jeroen Blokland

Zoom - August 9, 2022

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,611/1,630 points and the support at 1,600/1,592 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Zoom - August 8, 2022

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the resistance at 1,610/1,630 points and the support at 1,593/1,586 points. We recommend trading buy on...

Krungthai XSpring