Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened</li>
<li>European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.</li>
<li>I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.</li>
</ul>


The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened
European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.
I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.</li>
<li>We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.
We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude's supply-demand fundamentals are supportive but do not justify the price spike to 7-year highs, with Brent above $90.</li>
<li>The stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine has injected a progressively bigger fear premium in crude. </li>
<li>Our base case remains a de-escalation of the crisis, which could see Brent crude shedding at least 10% of its current value.</li>
</ul>


Crude's supply-demand fundamentals are supportive but do not justify the price spike to 7-year highs, with Brent above $90.
The stand-off between the West and Russia over Ukraine has injected a progressively bigger fear premium in crude. 
Our base case remains a de-escalation of the crisis, which could see Brent crude shedding at least 10% of its current value.


Oil Macros: Brent Could Shed 10% Fear Premium if Ukraine Crisis Defused

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in early Feb.</li>
<li>RSI key lows are compelling for a more bullish drive into early March. Wide range swings typically set up cycle troughs.</li>
<li>DJI displays the best base support with relative strength while the NDX faces yield headwinds and stall bull overhead sell pressure. <strong>US Macro is bearish in Q2.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in early Feb.
RSI key lows are compelling for a more bullish drive into early March. Wide range swings typically set up cycle troughs.
DJI displays the best base support with relative strength while the NDX faces yield headwinds and stall bull overhead sell pressure. US Macro is bearish in Q2.



US Capitulation Low in Place with Re Test Risk near Feb 4-6

<ul>
<li>Current rotational grind is part of our Dec 15-20 topping process after the SPX met our primary rally target at 4,735/47, bearish signal below the 4,712 inflection pivot.</li>
<li>DJI and NDX did not see new highs for a case of inter market bear divergence amid a very weak small caps showing. Breadth destruction is noteworthy/ugly.</li>
<li>Rising wedge structures are at real risk of breaking down in Q1 after a rotational grind terminates. Trendline/pattern support will see hard support breaks.</li>
</ul>


Current rotational grind is part of our Dec 15-20 topping process after the SPX met our primary rally target at 4,735/47, bearish signal below the 4,712 inflection pivot.
DJI and NDX did not see new highs for a case of inter market bear divergence amid a very weak small caps showing. Breadth destruction is noteworthy/ugly.
Rising wedge structures are at real risk of breaking down in Q1 after a rotational grind terminates. Trendline/pattern support will see hard support breaks.


United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Buy at the Sound of Cannons

The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened

Untying The Gordian Knot

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Large-cap indexes are approaching critical support levels of 4257 on S&P 500, $334 on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on DJIA. These are our "lines in...

Vermilion Research

Oil Macros: Brent Could Shed 10% Fear Premium if Ukraine Crisis Defused

The Ukraine fear premium in crude is now substantial, with Brent hitting a 7-year peak above $90. Our base case remains a de-escalation of the...

Vandana Hari

US Capitulation Low in Place with Re Test Risk near Feb 4-6

Call for a capitulation SPX low near January 24/25 to set in motion a reaction rise in February. Risk of a final downside re test does exist in...

Thomas Schroeder

The Grinch Is in the House

Current rotational grind is part of our Dec 15-20 topping process after the SPX met our primary rally target at 4,735/47, bearish signal below the...

Thomas Schroeder