External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>Dowlais Group is merging with American Axle &amp; Manufacturing, creating a major global supplier in driveline and metal-forming sectors.</li><li>Shareholders approved the merger, receiving 43p in cash and 0.0881 shares of AXL, leading to approximately 49% ownership of the new entity.</li><li>The merger is projected to generate $1.7 billion in EBITDA and over $700 million in free cash flow within 2-3 years, with potential for more than a 3x return.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)Dowlais Group is merging with American Axle &amp; Manufacturing, creating a major global supplier in driveline and metal-forming sectors.Shareholders approved the merger, receiving 43p in cash and 0.0881 shares of AXL, leading to approximately 49% ownership of the new entity.The merger is projected to generate $1.7 billion in EBITDA and over $700 million in free cash flow within 2-3 years, with potential for more than a 3x return.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Dowlais (DWL LN) - Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EU clearance confirmed 27 Oct 2025; seven of ten jurisdictions approved. Remaining reviews in Brazil, Mexico, and China progress. Management now targets Q1 2026 completion, extending earlier Q4 2025 timeline.</li>
<li>Implied offer value 85.8 p (AXL $6.49; GBP/USD 1.3313) vs DWL 83 p yields 3.4 % spread, or ~7–10 % annualised return under the revised Q1 2026 closing guidance.</li>
<li>Funding and shareholder approvals complete; deal risk remains low and primarily timing-related. Residual focus on SAMR clearance and FX/AXL volatility driving daily implied consideration.</li>
</ul>


EU clearance confirmed 27 Oct 2025; seven of ten jurisdictions approved. Remaining reviews in Brazil, Mexico, and China progress. Management now targets Q1 2026 completion, extending earlier Q4 2025 timeline.
Implied offer value 85.8 p (AXL $6.49; GBP/USD 1.3313) vs DWL 83 p yields 3.4 % spread, or ~7–10 % annualised return under the revised Q1 2026 closing guidance.
Funding and shareholder approvals complete; deal risk remains low and primarily timing-related. Residual focus on SAMR clearance and FX/AXL volatility driving daily implied consideration.


AAM-Dowlais: EU Cleared, 7/10 Approvals — Spread ~3.4%, Close Now Guided to Q1’26

<ul>
<li>Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.</li>
<li>Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.</li>
<li>Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.</li>
</ul>


Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.
Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.
Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.


AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul><li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li><li>The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.</li><li>Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.</li></ul>

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

In 2024, Dowlais Group exited its loss-making Hydrogen business and announced a strategic review of Powder Metallurgy. The group has now announced an agreed offer from American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM; NYSE:AXL), valuing the equity at £1.16bn or 85.2p a share (based on AAM’s price of $5.82 a share). This represents a 45% premium to the weighted average price over the last three months.

In 2024, Dowlais Group exited its loss-making Hydrogen business and announced a strategic review of Powder Metallurgy. The group has now announced an agreed offer from American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM; NYSE:AXL), valuing the equity at £1.16bn or 85.2p a share (based on AAM’s price of $5.82 a share). This represents a 45% premium to the weighted average price over the last three months.

Dowlais Group — American Axle & Manufacturing agreed offer

United Kingdom

Dowlais Group PLC operates as an engineering specialist. The Company offers automotive drive systems, powder metallurgy, and metal hydride technology solutions. Dowlais Group serves clients in the United Kingdom.

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Dowlais Group (DWL LN)

Dowlais (DWL LN) - Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025

Dowlais Group's merger with American Axle is set to create a leading global supplier, offering significant synergies and potential for over 3x...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

AAM-Dowlais: EU Cleared, 7/10 Approvals — Spread ~3.4%, Close Now Guided to Q1’26

EU clears AAM/Dowlais merger; seven of ten approvals done. 3.4 % spread, 7–10 % annualised return into Q1 2026. Main risk: timing, not deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

AAM/Dowlais offers ~3% spread, annualising to low-teens return, with funding and votes secured. Only regulatory timing risk remains, creating an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

We achieved 100% hit rate for the F100/250 Dec25 index review. The results were confirmed publicly after market close yesterday. I have summarized...

Afridi Reyal

Dowlais Group — American Axle & Manufacturing agreed offer

In 2024, Dowlais Group exited its loss-making Hydrogen business and announced a strategic review of Powder Metallurgy. The group has now announced...

Edison Investment Research

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