Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Super Micro Computer / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.</li>
<li>Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. </li>
<li>The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Duolingo, a prominent player in the online language learning space, has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, outlining both strengths and areas to watch.</li><li>The company demonstrated robust growth in key metrics, including a 54% year-over-year increase in daily active users (DAUs), with its Family Plan onboarding 21% of its subscriber base.</li><li>This impressive user growth, particularly after a high growth rate in previous years, suggests that Duolingo continues to successfully engage its expanding user base.</li></ul>

Duolingo, a prominent player in the online language learning space, has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, outlining both strengths and areas to watch.The company demonstrated robust growth in key metrics, including a 54% year-over-year increase in daily active users (DAUs), with its Family Plan onboarding 21% of its subscriber base.This impressive user growth, particularly after a high growth rate in previous years, suggests that Duolingo continues to successfully engage its expanding user base.

Duolingo Inc.: Leveraging AI & User Engagement For A Competitive Edge! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Duolingo Inc., a leader in language learning platforms, demonstrated robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 financial results, showcasing a balanced mix of high growth, increased user engagement, and strategic milestones that solidifies its market position while highlighting areas for prudence looking ahead.</li><li>The company reported a significant year-over-year growth in daily active users (DAUs) at 59% and revenues surged by 41%.</li><li>This robust top-line growth is supported by key product expansions and user engagement strategies.</li></ul>

Duolingo Inc., a leader in language learning platforms, demonstrated robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 financial results, showcasing a balanced mix of high growth, increased user engagement, and strategic milestones that solidifies its market position while highlighting areas for prudence looking ahead.The company reported a significant year-over-year growth in daily active users (DAUs) at 59% and revenues surged by 41%.This robust top-line growth is supported by key product expansions and user engagement strategies.

Duolingo Inc.: Expansion of Motion Design Capabilities by Acquiring Hobbes & Other Major Drivers

<ul><li>Duolingo Inc. recently released its Q1 2024 shareholder letter, announcing positive financial results while outlining future initiatives. The company achieved revenue and bookings growth of 45% and 41% respectively and saw active daily users grow by 54% YoY, signaling the effectiveness of their product-driven flywheel. The strategy of offering efficient language tutoring, driving user growth, and converting users to subscribers has proven to be beneficial for the platform. Duolingo also announced record profitability for the quarter. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios - a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.</li></ul>

Duolingo Inc. recently released its Q1 2024 shareholder letter, announcing positive financial results while outlining future initiatives. The company achieved revenue and bookings growth of 45% and 41% respectively and saw active daily users grow by 54% YoY, signaling the effectiveness of their product-driven flywheel. The strategy of offering efficient language tutoring, driving user growth, and converting users to subscribers has proven to be beneficial for the platform. Duolingo also announced record profitability for the quarter. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company. We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price. We have further incorporated a sensitivity analysis/ scenario analysis to understand how changes in key assumptions could impact the valuation under 3 scenarios - a base case, a bull case, and a bear case. These additional layers of analysis serve to provide a comprehensive and robust valuation, giving investors a nuanced understanding of the inherent risks and opportunities.

Duolingo Inc.: Investment in English Learning Content and Use of Generative AI! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>In Q4, Duolingo accomplished strong performances in both user growth and financial results last year.</li><li>CEO, Luis von Ahn, pointed out that the company scaled its product exponentially, resulting in a robust growth rate surpassing set expectation.</li><li>Adding over 13 points of adjusted EBITDA margin in 2023, Duolingo demonstrated its ability to leverage operations effectively and transform its product into a profitable business model.</li></ul>

In Q4, Duolingo accomplished strong performances in both user growth and financial results last year.CEO, Luis von Ahn, pointed out that the company scaled its product exponentially, resulting in a robust growth rate surpassing set expectation.Adding over 13 points of adjusted EBITDA margin in 2023, Duolingo demonstrated its ability to leverage operations effectively and transform its product into a profitable business model.

Duolingo Inc.: Expansion Into New Areas Of Learning And 5 Major Drivers

United States

Duolingo, Inc. designs and develops mobile learning platform. The Company teaches students a foreign language while simultaneously contributing to translate real-world content from the web. Duolingo serves students worldwide.

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Duolingo (DUOL US)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

Duolingo Inc.: Leveraging AI & User Engagement For A Competitive Edge! - Major Drivers

Duolingo, a prominent player in the online language learning space, has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, outlining...

Baptista Research

Duolingo Inc.: Expansion of Motion Design Capabilities by Acquiring Hobbes & Other Major Drivers

Duolingo Inc., a leader in language learning platforms, demonstrated robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 financial results,...

Baptista Research

Duolingo Inc.: Investment in English Learning Content and Use of Generative AI! - Major Drivers

Duolingo Inc. recently released its Q1 2024 shareholder letter, announcing positive financial results while outlining future initiatives. The...

Baptista Research

Duolingo Inc.: Expansion Into New Areas Of Learning And 5 Major Drivers

In Q4, Duolingo accomplished strong performances in both user growth and financial results last year. CEO, Luis von Ahn, pointed out that the...

Baptista Research

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