Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Duolingo, a leading language learning app inventor, recorded a spectacular Q3.</li><li>The company's revenue growth has caused it to revise earnings predictions upward, forecasting a 40% year-over-year growth.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

Duolingo, a leading language learning app inventor, recorded a spectacular Q3.The company's revenue growth has caused it to revise earnings predictions upward, forecasting a 40% year-over-year growth.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Duolingo Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. </li>
<li>Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. </li>
<li>With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.</li>
</ul>


Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. 
Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. 
With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.


Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

<ul>
<li>Duolingo shares have outperformed in 2023, with shares up ~115% over the year versus ~26% gain on the Nasdaq. The company priced its IPO at $102 a share in 2021.</li>
<li>EdTech unicorn achieved the highest-ever MAUs and DAUs in 2QFY23, while paid subscribers reached 5.2M, ~7% of MAUs. Management raised top-line and profitability guidance for FY23. </li>
<li>With a market cap of ~$7.4B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~13x and ~10x EV/Rev on my FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.</li>
</ul>


Duolingo shares have outperformed in 2023, with shares up ~115% over the year versus ~26% gain on the Nasdaq. The company priced its IPO at $102 a share in 2021.
EdTech unicorn achieved the highest-ever MAUs and DAUs in 2QFY23, while paid subscribers reached 5.2M, ~7% of MAUs. Management raised top-line and profitability guidance for FY23. 
With a market cap of ~$7.4B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~13x and ~10x EV/Rev on my FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.


Duolingo Valuation Update: Year-End Profit Taking Is Likely As ARR Growth Is Slowing Down

<ul>
<li>Freshworks, a cloud-based customer services software unicorn, held its first Investor Day on September 7, 2023. Management highlighted the long-term target to deliver the Rule of 40 by 2025. </li>
<li>The 2023 Investor Day agenda included company vision and strategy, solutions in action, strategy for durable growth, customer spotlight, and financial overview, among others. </li>
<li>Management plans to deliver a long-term balance of growth and profitability, with the 2026 model leading to an FCF margin of 20%+ and $1B+ revenue. </li>
</ul>


Freshworks, a cloud-based customer services software unicorn, held its first Investor Day on September 7, 2023. Management highlighted the long-term target to deliver the Rule of 40 by 2025. 
The 2023 Investor Day agenda included company vision and strategy, solutions in action, strategy for durable growth, customer spotlight, and financial overview, among others. 
Management plans to deliver a long-term balance of growth and profitability, with the 2026 model leading to an FCF margin of 20%+ and $1B+ revenue. 


Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update

Education Sector Analyst, Schoolhouse Solutions

Anik Siwach

Education Sector Analyst

Schoolhouse Solutions

Schoolhouse is a strategy and research provider for the Education sector. We publish differentiated reports and bespoke research on the sector, focused on private and public companies in Asia-Pacific. Our team has decades of experience working with Education companies ranging from K-12 to Tertiary and Edtech.

Strategy and Research Provider

<ul>
<li>
Holistic Educational Suite: 3PL enriched its product portfolio, with the APAC debut of WritingLegends and BrightPath Assessement. </li>
<li>
Steady Financial Growth: Amidst challenges in the UK, 3PL's 9% ARPU growth highlights its consistent performance and market strength. </li>
<li>
Setting the Pace: With attractive-priced offerings, an integrated product approach, and an innovative teacher training vision, 3PL is expected to continue growing its top line as more schools join. </li>
</ul>



Holistic Educational Suite: 3PL enriched its product portfolio, with the APAC debut of WritingLegends and BrightPath Assessement. 

Steady Financial Growth: Amidst challenges in the UK, 3PL's 9% ARPU growth highlights its consistent performance and market strength. 

Setting the Pace: With attractive-priced offerings, an integrated product approach, and an innovative teacher training vision, 3PL is expected to continue growing its top line as more schools join. 


3P Learning (3PL): Steady Through the 3Rs, Eyes on FY24

United States

Duolingo, Inc. designs and develops mobile learning platform. The Company teaches students a foreign language while simultaneously contributing to translate real-world content from the web. Duolingo serves students worldwide.

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Duolingo (DUOL US)

Duolingo Inc: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy Major Drivers

Duolingo, a leading language learning app inventor, recorded a spectacular Q3. The company's revenue growth has caused it to revise earnings...

Baptista Research

Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

My analysis suggests that Duolingo stock is overvalued, and the market has already priced in the organic 30%+ y/y growth along with improving...

Andrei Zakharov

Duolingo Valuation Update: Year-End Profit Taking Is Likely As ARR Growth Is Slowing Down

My analysis suggests that Duolingo stock is overvalued and may fall ~30% as insider selling intensifies and ARR growth is slowing down, coupled...

Andrei Zakharov

Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update

2023 Investor Day highlights massive TAM, ongoing business momentum, adoption of multi-product strategy, and AI monetization opportunities: PT...

Andrei Zakharov

3P Learning (3PL): Steady Through the 3Rs, Eyes on FY24

3PL stock up 5% since the insight was posted, the market is responding favourably to their FY23 figures as we suggested.

Anik Siwach

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