Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Communication Services and Health Care, and were covered in Financials, Information Technology and Real Estate.</p></div><div><p>Japan saw an increase in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> and a reduction in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Staples, Financials and Health Care and reduced on Industrials and  Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Korea increased in most industry groups led by Technology Hardware, Media &amp; Entertainment, and Semiconductors while shorts decreased in Household and Personal Products.</p></div><div><p>Shorts in Taiwan were covered in Technology Hardware, Semiconductors, Capital Goods and Insurance while shorts increased in Banks and Materials.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) and Meituan Dianping (3690 HK). Shorts increased in Communication Services and Health Care, and were covered in Financials, Information Technology and Real Estate.Japan saw an increase in shorts on Shiseido Company (4911 JP), Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Shimano Inc (7309 JP) and Lawson Inc (2651 JP) and a reduction in shorts on Oriental Land (4661 JP), East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP) and Mercari Inc (4385 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Staples, Financials and Health Care and reduced on Industrials and  Information Technology.Short Interest in Korea increased in most industry groups led by Technology Hardware, Media &amp; Entertainment, and Semiconductors while shorts decreased in Household and Personal Products.Shorts in Taiwan were covered in Technology Hardware, Semiconductors, Capital Goods and Insurance while shorts increased in Banks and Materials.

Asia Short Interest Weekly - Ping An, CPIC, SMIC, Meituan, Shiseido, Yageo, MediaTek

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1">Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)</a>. Shorts jumped on Consumer Discretionary and Health Care names while they covered positions in Communication Services, Financials and Information Technology. Short interest tripled on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a> during the week while shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> almost doubled.</p></div><div><p>Japan saw an increase in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> and a reduction in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in Industrials, Communication Services and Consumer Staples while shorts reduced in Real Estate, Information Technology and Materials.</p></div><div>
<p>Shorts in Korea decreased led by Information Technology, Health Care, Communication Services and Materials.</p>
<p>Shorts in Taiwan were covered in almost all sectors led by Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Materials and Industrials.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan Dianping (3690 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK) and Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK) while there was short covering on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), ICBC (H) (1398 HK), Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK). Shorts jumped on Consumer Discretionary and Health Care names while they covered positions in Communication Services, Financials and Information Technology. Short interest tripled on Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) during the week while shorts on Geely Auto (175 HK) almost doubled.Japan saw an increase in shorts on East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP), Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and a reduction in shorts on Alps Alpine (6770 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and IHI Corp (7013 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in Industrials, Communication Services and Consumer Staples while shorts reduced in Real Estate, Information Technology and Materials.
Shorts in Korea decreased led by Information Technology, Health Care, Communication Services and Materials.
Shorts in Taiwan were covered in almost all sectors led by Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Materials and Industrials.


Asia Short Interest Weekly - Massive Short Increase on Meituan, Geely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>On 19 February, we published an insight on the just-announced news of small cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-rietec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20794:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Rietec (1938 JP)</a>'s ascension to the TSE's First Section. That was called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-rietec-1938-super-interesting-events-unfolding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36778" rel="noopener">Nippon Rietec (1938) - SUPER Interesting Events Unfolding</a>. </p><p>That may have sounded a bit optimistic. Nippon Rietec is a 60+ year-old company which many investors would consider boring. They are in the railway electrical equipment and electrical construction business. If it has to do with trains, and electricity, they do it. They do signals, signal monitoring systems, installation of signals, testing systems, electronic gates on platforms and ticket readers, communications systems, electrical transformer stations, overhead electrical lines, electrification of non-electric lines, transmission lines, and all manner of construction around train lines (platform construction, maintenance, enhancement, protective fences, safety barriers, signage, etc. Trains R Us.</p><p>The three years of trading (weekly data) until that point were as in the chart below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/223/original/Screenshot%202020-04-28%20at%207.15.30%20PM.png?1588072569" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130223"></figure><div class="content-caption">source: tradingview.com, Quiddity</div><p>But the shareholder structure was such that despite a huge 1 million share offering launched at the same time, there could easily be a squeeze.</p><p><em>And there was.</em></p><p>The daily chart below shows the announcement, the COVID-19 Global Market Panic, and then the Return To Risk starting in the last week of March. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/233/original/Screenshot%202020-04-28%20at%208.08.26%20PM.png?1588075796" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130233"></figure><div class="content-caption">source: tradingview.com, Quiddity</div><p>From the ¥1660 open the day following my first insight until TOPIX inclusion today, the total return was 39.9% against total return of TOPIX at -13.0% for the same period.</p><p>That leaves us at crossroads for the stock. </p><p>More discussion below.</p>

On 19 February, we published an insight on the just-announced news of small cap Nippon Rietec (1938 JP)'s ascension to the TSE's First Section. That was called Nippon Rietec (1938) - SUPER Interesting Events Unfolding. That may have sounded a bit optimistic. Nippon Rietec is a 60+ year-old company which many investors would consider boring. They are in the railway electrical equipment and electrical construction business. If it has to do with trains, and electricity, they do it. They do signals, signal monitoring systems, installation of signals, testing systems, electronic gates on platforms and ticket readers, communications systems, electrical transformer stations, overhead electrical lines, electrification of non-electric lines, transmission lines, and all manner of construction around train lines (platform construction, maintenance, enhancement, protective fences, safety barriers, signage, etc. Trains R Us.The three years of trading (weekly data) until that point were as in the chart below.source: tradingview.com, QuiddityBut the shareholder structure was such that despite a huge 1 million share offering launched at the same time, there could easily be a squeeze.And there was.The daily chart below shows the announcement, the COVID-19 Global Market Panic, and then the Return To Risk starting in the last week of March. source: tradingview.com, QuiddityFrom the ¥1660 open the day following my first insight until TOPIX inclusion today, the total return was 39.9% against total return of TOPIX at -13.0% for the same period.That leaves us at crossroads for the stock. More discussion below.

Nippon Rietec's (1938) Gangbusters TOPIX Inclusion

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/001/original/2019-07-13_16-16-31.png?1563002212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93001"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/005/original/2019-07-13_16-25-24.png?1563002742" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93005"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT</strong> - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/020/original/2019-07-14_06-28-16.png?1563053334" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93020"></figure><p></p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/024/original/2019-07-14_06-45-29.png?1563054338" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93024"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VALUE TRADED RATIO </strong>- The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. </p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/025/original/2019-07-14_06-47-40.png?1563054585" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93025"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TORAKU INDEX </strong>- Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  </p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/026/original/2019-07-14_06-54-51.png?1563054906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93026"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE</strong> - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The <strong>Retail</strong> and <strong>Restaurant</strong> Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. <strong>REITs</strong> remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the <strong>Information Technology</strong> and <strong>Internet</strong> Sectors are the '<em>tema-du-jour</em>' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are <strong>Metals</strong>, <strong>Banks</strong>, <strong>Utilities</strong><strong>Transportation</strong>,  and <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/028/original/2019-07-14_07-31-40.png?1563057109" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93028"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION</strong> - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The <strong>Retail</strong> Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">, and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>. <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong> has suffered from weakness in component stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> (-38% over one year), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata (6981 JP)</a> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/murata-mfg-6981-jp-buy-on-decline-for-the-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30919" rel="noopener">(Buy on Decline for the Long Term</a>), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu (6301 JP)</a> have weighed on the <strong>Machinery</strong> Sector.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/031/original/2019-07-14_07-44-47.png?1563057897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93031"></figure><p></p></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - </strong>Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are <strong>Contrarian Sel</strong>l, <strong>Contrarian Buy</strong>, <strong>Unrequited Growth</strong>, and <strong>Ex-Growth</strong> suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, Other Commerical Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>, and Commercial Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit 6098 JP).</a> We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-sumitomo-metal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)</a>) </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">Obic (4684 JP)</a>.</p></div>


Source: Japan Analytics
MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. 
 Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.
 Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores Welcia (3141 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), and Lawson (2651 JP). Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks Alps Alpine (6770 JP) (-38% over one year), Murata (6981 JP) (see Scott Foster's (Buy on Decline for the Long Term), and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while SMC (6273 JP), Fanuc (6954 JP), and Komatsu (6301 JP) have weighed on the Machinery Sector.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (OBIC (4684 JP), Other Commerical Products (Hoya Corp (7741 JP), and Commercial Services (Recruit 6098 JP). We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)) In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Welcia (3141 JP), Daiseki (9793 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), Pola Orbis (4927 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP), and Obic (4684 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Readers interested in Japan's payments/cashless future should refer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2415" target="_blank">Michael Causton</a>'s excellent work in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/who-will-win-the-cashless-wars-in-japan" target="_blank">Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in Japan?</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/loyalty-points-in-japan-more-loyalty-more-points-and-the-conduit-to-cashless-payments" target="_blank">Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments</a>. As Michael notes, a points-based ecosystem could be the key to winning this war and if we were to guess at this point, we feel <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> is most likely to walk away as THE winner, though the situation is still highly uncertain. </p>

Readers interested in Japan's payments/cashless future should refer Michael Causton's excellent work in Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in Japan? and Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments. As Michael notes, a points-based ecosystem could be the key to winning this war and if we were to guess at this point, we feel Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is most likely to walk away as THE winner, though the situation is still highly uncertain. 

Rakuten Pay Tops the Japanese Cashless War

Japan

East Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services in the Kanto and Tohoku regions, including Tokyo.  The Company's services include the shinkansen (bullet train) network and the Tokyo metropolitan network.  East Japan Railway also leases real estate and operates hotel, travel, and restaurant businesses.

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East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)

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Rakuten Pay Tops the Japanese Cashless War

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Supun Walpola

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