Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe JR East share price is on the verge of re-rating as domestic travel in Japan normalizes in the coming months.</li>
<li>The company's FY3/23 revenue and operating profit guidance are too low and we expect the company to beat and raise as we travel through the year</li>
<li>At close to 1x book value, this is an excellent time to pick up the stock</li>
</ul>


We believe JR East share price is on the verge of re-rating as domestic travel in Japan normalizes in the coming months.
The company's FY3/23 revenue and operating profit guidance are too low and we expect the company to beat and raise as we travel through the year
At close to 1x book value, this is an excellent time to pick up the stock


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> are in a battle for share in online fashion with both companies increasingly aping the other to attract both merchants and consumers. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> aren’t standing still either but the competitive pressures between Rakuten and Zozo may put them ahead of their rivals.</li>
<li>This competitive edge now encompasses both physical stores and online platforms for physical retailers, with the aim to bind them ever closer to the platform.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) are in a battle for share in online fashion with both companies increasingly aping the other to attract both merchants and consumers. 

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Z Holdings (4689 JP) aren’t standing still either but the competitive pressures between Rakuten and Zozo may put them ahead of their rivals.
This competitive edge now encompasses both physical stores and online platforms for physical retailers, with the aim to bind them ever closer to the platform.


Platforms Add Merchant Support as Japan's Online Fashion Wars Move Offline

<ul>
<li>Familymart is fast becoming the leading retailer for unmanned stores.</li>
<li>It has a target of 1,000 unmanned stores by 2024 and is rolling out new shops regularly, although most remain experimental as it searches for the best model.</li>
<li>Other convenience stores are catching up too although have much less ambitious targets.</li>
</ul>


Familymart is fast becoming the leading retailer for unmanned stores.
It has a target of 1,000 unmanned stores by 2024 and is rolling out new shops regularly, although most remain experimental as it searches for the best model.
Other convenience stores are catching up too although have much less ambitious targets.


Familymart Taking the Lead in Developing Unmanned Conbini

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

West Japan Railway Co / Equity Capital Markets

Even after completing its rather significant capital raise and equity dilution we still do not consider JR West to be out of the woods and we have some concern about its ability to manage cash flow to meet its 35% dividend payout target.

Even after completing its rather significant capital raise and equity dilution we still do not consider JR West to be out of the woods and we have some concern about its ability to manage cash flow to meet its 35% dividend payout target.

JR West – Lacking Advantages Compared to JR Kyushu

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12077:1" rel="noopener">West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)</a>  is one of the first three listed JR companies (along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13520:1" rel="noopener">Central Japan Railway Co (9022 JP)</a>) and was always the smallest, in size and investor interest, until <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyushu-railway-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23609:1" rel="noopener">Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP)</a> came along. JR West has "always" traded at a lower EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and PER than a basket of its peers. For a long time that was due to lower ROAs and higher debt/EBITDA. Now ROAs have basically matched the basket of peers and so pre and post-covid, ROEs looked OK. Covid hit hard. Inbound tourism fell, business travel fell, commuting use fell, costs didn't. Gross margins which had been 22-27% for most of the last 20 years fell below zero. Revenues fell by 40%. Four Zero Percent. That is huge for a transport utility.  This is the same story for all the rails, but more for some than others.   The stock is down 50% from late 2019 highs. The question is whether that is enough. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/967/original/Screenshot+2021-09-05+at+10.36.27+AM.png?1630809405" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227967"></figure></section>Last week on 1 September, the company <a href="https://www.westjr.co.jp/global/en/ir/news/2022/pdf/en_20210901.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an offering of 51+mm shares including greenshoe, split 40/60 international/domestic. That is about 40 days volume and after the stock fell 15%, is worth about ¥260bn. The company has a large number of retail shareholders, and a very heavy passive and cross-holding ownership. It has a relatively low active institutional ownership - domestic or foreign. With the dividend down 40+% it still yields ~2% because of where the stock has fallen. Even better for some potential holders, the kabunushi yutai yield is 5+%, and up to 9% if one optimises (and rides the shinkansen, stays in hotels, and eats at restaurants in hotels). That may make it a selling point to some, but institutional investors don't get that benefit, so that aspect alone may not get all of the deal sold.There is an interesting story of Historical Cheapness vs Supply vs Benefits along with large passive ownership and decent-to-large passive demand for the offering. More below the fold.

West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)  is one of the first three listed JR companies (along with East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) and Central Japan Railway Co (9022 JP)) and was always the smallest, in size and investor interest, until Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) came along. JR West has "always" traded at a lower EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and PER than a basket of its peers. For a long time that was due to lower ROAs and higher debt/EBITDA. Now ROAs have basically matched the basket of peers and so pre and post-covid, ROEs looked OK. Covid hit hard. Inbound tourism fell, business travel fell, commuting use fell, costs didn't. Gross margins which had been 22-27% for most of the last 20 years fell below zero. Revenues fell by 40%. Four Zero Percent. That is huge for a transport utility.  This is the same story for all the rails, but more for some than others.   The stock is down 50% from late 2019 highs. The question is whether that is enough. Last week on 1 September, the company announced an offering of 51+mm shares including greenshoe, split 40/60 international/domestic. That is about 40 days volume and after the stock fell 15%, is worth about ¥260bn. The company has a large number of retail shareholders, and a very heavy passive and cross-holding ownership. It has a relatively low active institutional ownership - domestic or foreign. With the dividend down 40+% it still yields ~2% because of where the stock has fallen. Even better for some potential holders, the kabunushi yutai yield is 5+%, and up to 9% if one optimises (and rides the shinkansen, stays in hotels, and eats at restaurants in hotels). That may make it a selling point to some, but institutional investors don't get that benefit, so that aspect alone may not get all of the deal sold.There is an interesting story of Historical Cheapness vs Supply vs Benefits along with large passive ownership and decent-to-large passive demand for the offering. More below the fold. 

JR West (9021 JP) Offering - Supply Vs Yutai+Passive Demand

Japan

East Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services in the Kanto and Tohoku regions, including Tokyo.  The Company's services include the shinkansen (bullet train) network and the Tokyo metropolitan network.  East Japan Railway also leases real estate and operates hotel, travel, and restaurant businesses.

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East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)

JR EAST (9020) | Golden (Week) Catalysts

JR East is a core holding - a key beneficiary of a resumption in domestic travel in Japan in addition to the re-opening of borders. The stock is...

Mark Chadwick

Platforms Add Merchant Support as Japan's Online Fashion Wars Move Offline

Zozo has had a good run during the pandemic and we continue to remain bullish about its growth thanks to many recent innovations but the biggest...

Michael Causton

Familymart Taking the Lead in Developing Unmanned Conbini

A labour shortage has pushed Japanese convenience store retailers to invest in technologies to reduce staff requirements and are now beginning to...

Michael Causton

JR West – Lacking Advantages Compared to JR Kyushu

Even after completing its rather significant capital raise and equity dilution JR West is still not out of the woods and we have some concern about...

Mio Kato

JR West (9021 JP) Offering - Supply Vs Yutai+Passive Demand

JR West surprised the market with an equity offering last Wednesday. It is JPY 260bn or so at current price and represents more than 20% EPS...

Travis Lundy

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