Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/west-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12077:1" rel="noopener">West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)</a> announced <a href="https://www.westjr.co.jp/global/en/ir/library/flash-report/pdf/fr202404.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY23 earnings</a>, a <a href="https://www.westjr.co.jp/global/en/ir/news/2025/pdf/en_20240430_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">higher dividend</a>, an <a href="https://www.westjr.co.jp/global/en/ir/library/meeting/pdf/presen20240430.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update to the Medium-Term Management Plan</a> (p10~), and a Buyback.</li>
<li>Short &amp; Sweet:  Revenues were +17.2%yoy, OP +114.1%, NP +1.6%. OPM was 11.0% and ROE 9.2% (both best since FY18). Guidance is Revenue up, OP down, NP tiny up.</li>
<li>The new FY25 (Mar26) OP guide in the MTMP is the old Mar28 target (mostly inbound tourism-driven). The Buyback is biggish. It is worth looking at the details. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP) announced FY23 earnings, a higher dividend, an update to the Medium-Term Management Plan (p10~), and a Buyback.
Short &amp; Sweet:  Revenues were +17.2%yoy, OP +114.1%, NP +1.6%. OPM was 11.0% and ROE 9.2% (both best since FY18). Guidance is Revenue up, OP down, NP tiny up.
The new FY25 (Mar26) OP guide in the MTMP is the old Mar28 target (mostly inbound tourism-driven). The Buyback is biggish. It is worth looking at the details. 


JR West (9021 JP) - Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In late February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.</li>
<li>I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.</li>
<li>Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn't. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.</li>
</ul>


In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn't. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback - Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>KDDI's agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.</li>
<li>There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI's offer suggests.</li>
<li>And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.</li>
</ul>


KDDI's agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.
There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI's offer suggests.
And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.


Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.


TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

Japan

East Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services in the Kanto and Tohoku regions, including Tokyo.  The Company's services include the shinkansen (bullet train) network and the Tokyo metropolitan network.  East Japan Railway also leases real estate and operates hotel, travel, and restaurant businesses.

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East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)

JR West (9021 JP) - Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact

JR West announced b/t/e earnings, and a large-ish buyback. The stock popped. Shareholder structure is such that IF cross-holders do not start...

Travis Lundy

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

KDDI's offer with Lawson and Mitsubishi is a game-changer, including in e-commerce and retail media. Lawson's value may exceed the offer, as it...

Michael Causton

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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JR West (9021 JP) - Shareholder Structure Means Large-Ish Buyback Could Have Impact

JR West announced b/t/e earnings, and a large-ish buyback. The stock popped. Shareholder structure is such that IF cross-holders do not start...

Travis Lundy

Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback - Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

Keisei is doing a ToSTNeT-3. Crossholders might sell, but the purpose is an ASR. Those long Keisei/Short OLC can also sell a large block of Keisei....

Travis Lundy

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

​KDDI's offer with Lawson and Mitsubishi is a game-changer, including in e-commerce and retail media. Lawson's value may exceed the offer, as it...

Michael Causton

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

KDDI's offer with Lawson and Mitsubishi is a game-changer, including in e-commerce and retail media. Lawson's value may exceed the offer, as it...