Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech management extrapolated on their recent results call that they believe 2Q23 was the bottom for the DRAM cycle.</li>
<li>We've updated our Nanya Tech financial model and estimates; we still see a short-term trade back to Nanya Tech's mid-June high. However, Elan Microelectronics is a Long with more edge.</li>
<li>While Nanya's comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron's recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung appears to be turning a corner.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech management extrapolated on their recent results call that they believe 2Q23 was the bottom for the DRAM cycle.
We've updated our Nanya Tech financial model and estimates; we still see a short-term trade back to Nanya Tech's mid-June high. However, Elan Microelectronics is a Long with more edge.
While Nanya's comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron's recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung appears to be turning a corner.


Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge

<ul>
<li>Micron released results and its shares are rising U.S. afterhours. The company said that its trough is past, implying the same for other memory chip producers such as Nanya Tech.</li>
<li>Given Nanya Tech recently rallied ahead of Micron, then reverted back most of the gains, we see at least a10% short-term Long trade for Nanya shares here.</li>
<li>Micron also made positive comments about the PC industry inventories. However, Taiwan PC names are already near 52-week highs. Elan Microelectronics could be a yet-to-rally play: See our full piece.</li>
</ul>


Micron released results and its shares are rising U.S. afterhours. The company said that its trough is past, implying the same for other memory chip producers such as Nanya Tech.
Given Nanya Tech recently rallied ahead of Micron, then reverted back most of the gains, we see at least a10% short-term Long trade for Nanya shares here.
Micron also made positive comments about the PC industry inventories. However, Taiwan PC names are already near 52-week highs. Elan Microelectronics could be a yet-to-rally play: See our full piece.


Memory Monitor: Micron Signals Trough Is Past -- Long Nanya Rebound & Elan Micro a Less Obvious Play

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Another major earnings week with AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Acer, Winbond, Wistron, Micro-Star, and more.</li>
<li>Hon Hai could terminate its investment deal in U.S.-based Lordstown Motors as per an exchange notice posted by Lordstown.</li>
<li>AMD reportedly transfers some 4nm chip business to Samsung from TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Another major earnings week with AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Acer, Winbond, Wistron, Micro-Star, and more.
Hon Hai could terminate its investment deal in U.S.-based Lordstown Motors as per an exchange notice posted by Lordstown.
AMD reportedly transfers some 4nm chip business to Samsung from TSMC.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Another Major Earnings Week; Hon Hai Deal Exit? AMD Transfers Orders to Samsung

<ul>
<li>The PC supply/demand outlook appears to be improving and Elan's leading position providing touch technologies for PCs and other devices makes it an interesting play on the cycle rebound.</li>
<li>Elan's results were recently weak due to industry-cycle factors; its company-specific strengths haven't been affected and its product leadership makes it well positioned for an industry rebound.</li>
<li>Just retracing half its distance from 52-week highs would imply 24% upside and an undemanding valuation in our view.</li>
</ul>


The PC supply/demand outlook appears to be improving and Elan's leading position providing touch technologies for PCs and other devices makes it an interesting play on the cycle rebound.
Elan's results were recently weak due to industry-cycle factors; its company-specific strengths haven't been affected and its product leadership makes it well positioned for an industry rebound.
Just retracing half its distance from 52-week highs would imply 24% upside and an undemanding valuation in our view.


Elan Microelectronics: Specialized Upstream Play on Improving PC Industry Supply/Demand

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The index constituent weights of the TWSE Div+ Index will be capped during the upcoming March 2023 Index quarterly index review. </li>
<li>Previously, it looked like there were going to be no flows. However, now my expectations have changed, as of Monday's close (they weren't going to change as of Friday).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's expectations for index flows resulting from these events. </li>
</ul>


The index constituent weights of the TWSE Div+ Index will be capped during the upcoming March 2023 Index quarterly index review. 
Previously, it looked like there were going to be no flows. However, now my expectations have changed, as of Monday's close (they weren't going to change as of Friday).
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's expectations for index flows resulting from these events. 


Quiddity TWSE Div+ Capping Flows March 2023: Final Minute Changes to Expectations

Taiwan

Elan Microelectronics Corp. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's product lines include telecom line, consumer electronic line, microcontroller line, personal computer (PC) peripheral line, and memory line.

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Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT)

Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge

While Nanya's comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron's recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Signals Trough Is Past -- Long Nanya Rebound & Elan Micro a Less Obvious Play

Given Nanya Tech recently rallied ahead of Micron, then reverted back most of the gains, we see at least a10% short-term Long trade for Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Another Major Earnings Week; Hon Hai Deal Exit? AMD Transfers Orders to Samsung

Hon Hai could terminate its investment deal in U.S.-based Lordstown Motors as per an exchange notice posted by Lordstown.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Elan Microelectronics: Specialized Upstream Play on Improving PC Industry Supply/Demand

Just retracing half its distance from 52-week highs would imply 24% upside and an undemanding valuation in our view. The company is in a leading...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity TWSE Div+ Capping Flows March 2023: Final Minute Changes to Expectations

I expect 27 names to experience positive index flows and 23 names to experience negative index flows. I expect the one-wat flow size to be around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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