Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.
We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.


U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Over the last one month, the U.S. healthcare sector remained mostly resilient to the inflation risk and gained 7.1% outperforming S&amp;P 500 index’s gain of 5%.  </li>
<li>Sound financials, high revenue visibility, low or no debt, and cash rich position are some of the reasons for the outperformance.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have handpicked top-quality healthcare sector bets from the S&amp;P 500 index and discussed about their growth stories.</li>
</ul>


Over the last one month, the U.S. healthcare sector remained mostly resilient to the inflation risk and gained 7.1% outperforming S&amp;P 500 index’s gain of 5%.  
Sound financials, high revenue visibility, low or no debt, and cash rich position are some of the reasons for the outperformance.
In this insight, we have handpicked top-quality healthcare sector bets from the S&amp;P 500 index and discussed about their growth stories.


U.S. Healthcare Sector: Ride Out Market Turmoil with High-Quality Large-Cap Ideas

<ul>
<li>US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.</li>
<li>Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)</li>
</ul>


US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.
Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)


Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eli-lilly-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19419:1" rel="noopener">Eli Lilly'</a>s development strategy is worth learning from, which explains the investment logic of a lot of “smart money” and can also be used for reference by domestic pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>For CGT, before detail policies on how to properly commercialize CGT in China released, CXO with related R&amp;D capabilities could be a better investment option at the current stage.</li>
<li>The overall sleep situation of Chinese people is not optimistic, leading to the rapid development of China's sleep economy. Meanwhile, we also recommend that investors pay attention to sleep quality.</li>
</ul>



Eli Lilly's development strategy is worth learning from, which explains the investment logic of a lot of “smart money” and can also be used for reference by domestic pharmaceutical companies.
For CGT, before detail policies on how to properly commercialize CGT in China released, CXO with related R&amp;D capabilities could be a better investment option at the current stage.
The overall sleep situation of Chinese people is not optimistic, leading to the rapid development of China's sleep economy. Meanwhile, we also recommend that investors pay attention to sleep quality.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.25)- Viable Business Model for Pharma, CXO for CGT, China Sleep Economy

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals.  The Company's products are sold in countries around the world.  Eli Lilly's products include neuroscience products, endocrine products, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology products, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US)

U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), as each...

Vermilion Research

Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Healthcare Sector: Ride Out Market Turmoil with High-Quality Large-Cap Ideas

Healthcare sector is expected to remain resilient to the inflation worry and outperform broader market in near-term. This insight highlights top...

Tina Banerjee

Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year...

Vermilion Research

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.25)- Viable Business Model for Pharma, CXO for CGT, China Sleep Economy

The strategy of Eli Lilly could be a good reference for domestic pharmaceutical companies.CXO for CGT is a better investment option.The sleep...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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