Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 29th. The aggregated holding was USD2,287.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,743mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 29th. The aggregated holding was USD2,287.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD6,743mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 29th): Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Nanya Technology

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 22nd. The aggregated holding was USD2,141.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD826mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, MediaTek, UMC, Compeq Manufacturing, Unimicron Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 22nd. The aggregated holding was USD2,141.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD826mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, MediaTek, UMC, Compeq Manufacturing, Unimicron Technology.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 22nd): TSMC, MediaTek, UMC, Compeq Manufacturing

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated holding was USD2,103.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,715mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Asustek Computer, Wiwynn, Global Unichip.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated holding was USD2,103.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,715mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Asustek Computer, Wiwynn, Global Unichip.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 15th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Asustek Computer, Wiwynn

Taiwan

Elite Material Co., Ltd manufactures and markets prepared laminated cover claddings for double-sided and multi-layer printed circuit boards.

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Elite Material (2383 TT)

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 29th): Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Nanya Technology

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT), Zhen Ding...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 22nd): TSMC, MediaTek, UMC, Compeq Manufacturing

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, MediaTek, UMC, Compeq Manufacturing,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 15th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Asustek Computer, Wiwynn

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Asustek Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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