Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen the Hong Kong-listed mainland stocks ahead of the HSCEI August 2026 review.</li>
<li>The screen produces one ADD and one DELETE, and the DELETE fires only if the ADD lands.</li>
<li>We note that the committee skipped the same ADD candidate last review but re-iterate our call.</li>
</ul>


We screen the Hong Kong-listed mainland stocks ahead of the HSCEI August 2026 review.
The screen produces one ADD and one DELETE, and the DELETE fires only if the ADD lands.
We note that the committee skipped the same ADD candidate last review but re-iterate our call.


<ul>
<li>I tally 30 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below</li>
<li>Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ofx-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8376:1" rel="noopener">OFX Group (OFX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-fin-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9999:1" rel="noopener">Z Fin (1168 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gabia-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13535:1" rel="noopener">Gabia Inc (079940 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8911:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 30 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below
Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: OFX Group (OFX AU), Get Nice (64 HK), Z Fin (1168 HK), and Gabia Inc (079940 KS).
Key updates/news also took place on: Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK), Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP), and Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, OFX, Get Nice, Z Fin, Gabia Inc, China Shengmu, Ajinomoto

<ul>
<li>EQT/DG lifted their Offer Price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a> to ¥3,450/share. This "obstructs" the Bain/LY deal, slightly, temporarily, but there are nuances within. Expect Bain/LY to come over the top.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is cheap"  vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> "rich" to Prosus. Look to long Prosus here, short Tencent here. Or long Prosus, short Naspers</li>
<li>Be comfortable medium-long-term with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s super-cheap asset. And they have niche businesses in semiconductor/tech to spruce things up if people decide they want to run with it.</li>
</ul>


EQT/DG lifted their Offer Price for Kakaku.com (2371 JP) to ¥3,450/share. This "obstructs" the Bain/LY deal, slightly, temporarily, but there are nuances within. Expect Bain/LY to come over the top.

Prosus NV (PRX NA) is cheap"  vs. Tencent (700 HK). And Naspers (NPN SJ) "rich" to Prosus. Look to long Prosus here, short Tencent here. Or long Prosus, short Naspers
Be comfortable medium-long-term with Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s super-cheap asset. And they have niche businesses in semiconductor/tech to spruce things up if people decide they want to run with it.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, Prosus/Tencent/Naspers, Legend/Lenovo

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia-Ukraine war has raised commodity prices which are negative towards commodity users in short term. However, we see silver linings for Chinese utilities and energy companies in the longer term.</li>
<li>The conflict is expected to accelerate the progress of renewable projects currently under development, lead to a faster diversification away from fossils and increase gas supply from Russia to China. </li>
<li>Key beneficiaries include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">Energy China (3996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-construction-corporation-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24220:1" rel="noopener">Power China (601669 CH)</a> and the gas utilities.</li>
</ul>


Russia-Ukraine war has raised commodity prices which are negative towards commodity users in short term. However, we see silver linings for Chinese utilities and energy companies in the longer term.
The conflict is expected to accelerate the progress of renewable projects currently under development, lead to a faster diversification away from fossils and increase gas supply from Russia to China. 
Key beneficiaries include Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), Dongfang Electric (1072 HK), China Longyuan Power (916 HK), Energy China (3996 HK), Power China (601669 CH) and the gas utilities.


Russia-Ukraine War: Longer Term Implications for China Utilities and Energy

China

ENN Energy is a major clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure, as well as the sales and distribution of piped gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other multi-energy products. The company also provides low-carbon integrated energy solutions and smart home services. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Langfang, China.

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ENN Energy (2688 HK)

Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida

For the month of July, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$5bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

HSCEI Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We pair a WuXi Bio ADD with a Shenzhou DELETE at mid conviction. The committee skipped WuXi Bio last review, but this time we would not rule the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, OFX, Get Nice, Z Fin, Gabia Inc, China Shengmu, Ajinomoto

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, Prosus/Tencent/Naspers, Legend/Lenovo

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Russia-Ukraine War: Longer Term Implications for China Utilities and Energy

We should not overlook the potential long term impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Chinese utilities and energy companies as we find some...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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