Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.</li>
<li>Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.</li>
<li>As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.
Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.
As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zheneng Jinjiang Environment / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheneng-jinjiang-environment-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22847:1" rel="noopener">Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP)</a>, a waste-to-energy infrastructure play, <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/ZJE%20-%20Joint%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=905302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> yesterday afternoon an Offer, by way of Scheme, from a consortium comprising major shareholder, the Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group. </li>
<li>Zhejiang Provincial, inter alia, all of whom are linked to the provincial government of China's Zhejiang province, are offering S$0.70/share, a 19.7% premium to last close. Terms are not final.</li>
<li>Scrip into a back-end vehicle is afforded. Terms are just shy of a decade-high. S$0.045/share in dividends to be added. Timing on the PRC reg approvals is the key risk.</li>
</ul>



Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP), a waste-to-energy infrastructure play, announced yesterday afternoon an Offer, by way of Scheme, from a consortium comprising major shareholder, the Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group. 
Zhejiang Provincial, inter alia, all of whom are linked to the provincial government of China's Zhejiang province, are offering S$0.70/share, a 19.7% premium to last close. Terms are not final.
Scrip into a back-end vehicle is afforded. Terms are just shy of a decade-high. S$0.045/share in dividends to be added. Timing on the PRC reg approvals is the key risk.


Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP): S$0.70/Share Scheme Offer. Plus Divies

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market.  Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities, telecom, and energy sectors have strengthened.</li>
<li>Mainland investors have slowed net buying through the Southbound Connect platform.  Dividend yield, value and low volatility are leading investment factors since October. Growth and momentum factors have lagged.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> is initiated as BUY at Shenwan Hongyuan.  VLCC rates to China are rising amid U.S. oil sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market.  Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities, telecom, and energy sectors have strengthened.
Mainland investors have slowed net buying through the Southbound Connect platform.  Dividend yield, value and low volatility are leading investment factors since October. Growth and momentum factors have lagged.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is initiated as BUY at Shenwan Hongyuan.  VLCC rates to China are rising amid U.S. oil sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (December 17)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

China

ENN Energy is a major clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure, as well as the sales and distribution of piped gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other multi-energy products. The company also provides low-carbon integrated energy solutions and smart home services. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Langfang, China.

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ENN Energy (2688 HK)

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David Mudd

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OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

Zheneng Jinjiang Environment (ZJE SP): S$0.70/Share Scheme Offer. Plus Divies

Trading at a gross/annual. spread of 11.2%/13.9%, using a ten month off-ramp. If illiquid arbs are your bag, and not already in, get in around...

David Blennerhassett

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (December 17)

Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market. Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities,...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd