HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15586:1" rel="noopener">Peet Ltd (PPC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oue-healthcare-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:562:1" rel="noopener">OUE Healthcare (OUEHC SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausgold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1" rel="noopener">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golfzon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16376:1" rel="noopener">Golfzon Holdings (121440 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Carnaby Resources (CNB AU), and OUE Healthcare (OUEHC SP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU), Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU), Dentsu Soken (4812 JP), and Golfzon Holdings (121440 KS).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Dentsu Soken, Peet, Carnaby Resources, Reliance Worldwide, Ausgold, Golfzon

<ul>
<li>The market now realise that EQT's playing the long game for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a>. Not optimal unless EQT thinks that they have a chance at a runoff. </li>
<li>Reportedly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> has identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> as its preferred takeover target</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a> is a busted deal. Did the Offeror sound out all the necessary officials AND regulatory bodies before even launching the Offer.</li>
</ul>


The market now realise that EQT's playing the long game for Kakaku.com (2371 JP). Not optimal unless EQT thinks that they have a chance at a runoff. 
Reportedly, Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) has identified Suncorp (SUN AU) as its preferred takeover target

Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK) is a busted deal. Did the Offeror sound out all the necessary officials AND regulatory bodies before even launching the Offer.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Suncorp, TCL Electronics, Changhong Jiahua, Steadfast

<ul>
<li>For those who came in late, I expected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN (2688 HK)</a>'s Offer to get up. I was wrong. For all intent and purpose, I'm also wrong on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong (3991 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Changhong is trading 50% below terms and 34% below the undisturbed price of HK$0.92/share. A peer basket is down 5% (the median) since the Offer was announced last September.</li>
<li>1H26 financials were solid. Changhong has added net cash of $1.4bn since the Offer was announced. If small, illiquid stocks are your bag, Changhong's share price is unduly beaten up.</li>
</ul>


For those who came in late, I expected ENN (2688 HK)'s Offer to get up. I was wrong. For all intent and purpose, I'm also wrong on Changhong (3991 HK).
Changhong is trading 50% below terms and 34% below the undisturbed price of HK$0.92/share. A peer basket is down 5% (the median) since the Offer was announced last September.
1H26 financials were solid. Changhong has added net cash of $1.4bn since the Offer was announced. If small, illiquid stocks are your bag, Changhong's share price is unduly beaten up.


<ul>
<li>Foreign exchange gains/losses are major swing factors in FY22 results of many companies and we think investors may have overlooked their importance in driving FY23 earnings. </li>
<li>With Rmb/USD exchange rate appreciated YTD, reversing the 8.5% depreciation in last year, the demons of many companies in last year will become positive earnings contributor. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> are key beneficiaries, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric (3899 HK)</a> may turned into exchange losses.</li>
</ul>


Foreign exchange gains/losses are major swing factors in FY22 results of many companies and we think investors may have overlooked their importance in driving FY23 earnings. 
With Rmb/USD exchange rate appreciated YTD, reversing the 8.5% depreciation in last year, the demons of many companies in last year will become positive earnings contributor. 

Shenzhen International (152 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK) are key beneficiaries, while CIMC Enric (3899 HK) may turned into exchange losses.


China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!

China

ENN Energy is a major clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure, as well as the sales and distribution of piped gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other multi-energy products. The company also provides low-carbon integrated energy solutions and smart home services. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Langfang, China.

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ENN Energy (2688 HK)

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Dentsu Soken, Peet, Carnaby Resources, Reliance Worldwide, Ausgold, Golfzon

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Suncorp, TCL Electronics, Changhong Jiahua, Steadfast

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)'s Busted Deal

Changhong Jiahua is a busted deal. Only look to get exposure,if you like the fundamentals (long term); and illiquid stocks.

David Blennerhassett

China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!

Shenzhen Intl, ENN Energy, Shenzhen Expressway and Kunlun Energy are the key beneficiaries of the reverse in Rmb/USD depreciation trend in FY23,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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