AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.</li>
<li>CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.</li>
<li>The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.</li>
</ul>


Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.
CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.
The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.


Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

CEO / Founder, Crea8

Kim-Hwa Lim

CEO / Founder

Make an Impact

Crea8

Crea8 blends AI-driven precision, big data scalability, and rigorous quantitative frameworks with seasoned human insight. By extracting actionable intelligence from vast global datasets, we eliminate emotional bias and deliver optimal risk-adjusted returns. Our hybrid approach uncovers hidden market efficiencies and ensures your capital is dynamically positioned across markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The strategy seeks to invest in Shariah compliant companies in Greater China.</li><li>These companies may be established State Owned Enterprise, technology/entrepreneurial companies listed on Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and ChiNext.</li><li>By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.</li></ul>

The strategy seeks to invest in Shariah compliant companies in Greater China.These companies may be established State Owned Enterprise, technology/entrepreneurial companies listed on Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and ChiNext.By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.

Greater China (Shariah) Portfolio (18-Aug-2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD341,906m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, SHARETRONIC DATA TECHNOLOGY, YUANJIE SEMI, SUZHOU EVERBRIGHT PHOTONICS, GIGADEVICE SEMICONDUCTOR.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD341,906m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, SHARETRONIC DATA TECHNOLOGY, YUANJIE SEMI, SUZHOU EVERBRIGHT PHOTONICS, GIGADEVICE SEMICONDUCTOR.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 9th): ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, SHARETRONIC DATA TECHNOLOGY

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.</li>
<li>Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.</li>
<li>There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.
Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.
There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.


Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We noticed SemiAnalysis published an article on Jun 9 discussing potential deployment delays in 1) co-packaged optics (CPO) and 2) Nvidia’s native single-ended 800VDC architecture, which has triggered market debate and put pressure on AI infrastructure-related names, particularly optical, power semiconductor and datacom interconnect suppliers.</li><li>We think the note is better interpreted as a timing reset rather than a demand reset.</li><li>On optics, its conclusion is broadly consistent with our prior view that mass CPO adoption is unlikely before late-2027 at the earliest (see our prev. note), while pluggable optical modules and NPO should remain key deployment paths for the foreseeable future, supporting leading domestic optical module suppliers including Innolight (300308 CH, BUY) and Eoptolink (300502 CH, NR).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We noticed SemiAnalysis published an article on Jun 9 discussing potential deployment delays in 1) co-packaged optics (CPO) and 2) Nvidia’s native single-ended 800VDC architecture, which has triggered market debate and put pressure on AI infrastructure-related names, particularly optical, power semiconductor and datacom interconnect suppliers.We think the note is better interpreted as a timing reset rather than a demand reset.On optics, its conclusion is broadly consistent with our prior view that mass CPO adoption is unlikely before late-2027 at the earliest (see our prev. note), while pluggable optical modules and NPO should remain key deployment paths for the foreseeable future, supporting leading domestic optical module suppliers including Innolight (300308 CH, BUY) and Eoptolink (300502 CH, NR).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - A quick read on recently reported CPO and 800VDC deployment delay

China

Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd.  designs and manufactures communication components.  The Company sells a variety of optical transceiver modules.  Eoptolink Technology sells products around the world.

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Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH)

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

Greater China (Shariah) Portfolio (18-Aug-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in Shariah compliant companies in Greater China. These companies may be established State Owned Enterprise,...

Crea8

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

Semiconductors - A quick read on recently reported CPO and 800VDC deployment delay

We noticed SemiAnalysis published an article on Jun 9 discussing potential deployment delays in 1) co-packaged optics (CPO) and 2) Nvidia’s native...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

Greater China (Shariah) Portfolio (18-Aug-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in Shariah compliant companies in Greater China. These companies may be established State Owned Enterprise,...

Crea8

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 9th): ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, SHARETRONIC DATA TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE (600418 CH), SHARETRONIC DATA...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

Semiconductors - A quick read on recently reported CPO and 800VDC deployment delay

We noticed SemiAnalysis published an article on Jun 9 discussing potential deployment delays in 1) co-packaged optics (CPO) and 2) Nvidia’s native...

CMB International