Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://weeklystockbullfinder.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Housing remains one of the most interest rate sensitive parts of the US economy and the rapid rise in interest rates delivered in the beginning of this year by the Federal Reserve is now being fully digested by the overall market. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Like an aircraft carrier turning around, it has taken several months for the reset to kickoff but patterns are now clearly emerging from incoming data and surveys that indicates the housing market froth during the peak of COVID-19 has begun to or is quickly unwinding.  </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Take a few examples below.</span></li><li><em>Bidding Wars Easing </em><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">One of hallmark features of the housing market the past 2 years were feverous bidding wars for properties which was supported by record low interest rates, rising stock market values, and a re-thinking of city life as new flexible work models were introduced.</span></li></ul></div></form></div></div>

Housing remains one of the most interest rate sensitive parts of the US economy and the rapid rise in interest rates delivered in the beginning of this year by the Federal Reserve is now being fully digested by the overall market. Like an aircraft carrier turning around, it has taken several months for the reset to kickoff but patterns are now clearly emerging from incoming data and surveys that indicates the housing market froth during the peak of COVID-19 has begun to or is quickly unwinding.  Take a few examples below.Bidding Wars Easing One of hallmark features of the housing market the past 2 years were feverous bidding wars for properties which was supported by record low interest rates, rising stock market values, and a re-thinking of city life as new flexible work models were introduced.

<ul>
<li>We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.</li>
<li>With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.</li>
<li>We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.</li>
</ul>


We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.
With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.
We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.


S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Grasim's 71%-owned Aditya Birla Renewables (ABRen) will acquire 100% of Solenergi Power (Sprng Energy) from Shell for Rs. 17,200 crore enterprise value.</li>
<li>The deal nearly doubles ABRen's portfolio to 9.3–9.4 GWp, reshapes India's renewables pecking order, and tests Grasim's balance sheet discipline.</li>
<li>Valuation looks attractive versus listed peers, but funding structure, leverage and GIP's equity role will decide whether this creates or destroys near-term value.</li>
</ul>


Grasim's 71%-owned Aditya Birla Renewables (ABRen) will acquire 100% of Solenergi Power (Sprng Energy) from Shell for Rs. 17,200 crore enterprise value.
The deal nearly doubles ABRen's portfolio to 9.3–9.4 GWp, reshapes India's renewables pecking order, and tests Grasim's balance sheet discipline.
Valuation looks attractive versus listed peers, but funding structure, leverage and GIP's equity role will decide whether this creates or destroys near-term value.


Grasim Doubles Down on Renewables with ₹17,200 Crore Sprng Energy Deal

Norway

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Equinor ASA (EQNR US)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/22

The rapid rise in interest rates delivered in the beginning of this year by the Federal Reserve is now being fully digested by the overall market.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

The $SPX is trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the...

Vermilion Research

Grasim Doubles Down on Renewables with ₹17,200 Crore Sprng Energy Deal

Grasim's ABRen to acquire Sprng Energy from Shell for Rs. 17,200 crore, reshaping India's renewables sector and testing balance sheet discipline.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/22

The rapid rise in interest rates delivered in the beginning of this year by the Federal Reserve is now being fully digested by the overall market.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

The $SPX is trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the...

Vermilion Research

Grasim Doubles Down on Renewables with ₹17,200 Crore Sprng Energy Deal

​Grasim's ABRen to acquire Sprng Energy from Shell for Rs. 17,200 crore, reshaping India's renewables sector and testing balance sheet discipline.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Grasim's ABRen to acquire Sprng Energy from Shell for Rs. 17,200 crore, reshaping India's renewables sector and testing balance sheet discipline.