Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: A$3.5 mm funding boost ahead of busy activity programme – ADX has raised A$3.5 mm through a new equity placement at A$0.026 per share.</li>
<li>Investors in the placement will also receive one option for every two new shares subscribed, exercisable at A$0.039 per share.</li>
<li>The capital raise strengthens ADX’s balance sheet ahead of its 2026 work programme and effectively removes the funding overhang that had weighed on the stock.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: A$3.5 mm funding boost ahead of busy activity programme – ADX has raised A$3.5 mm through a new equity placement at A$0.026 per share.
Investors in the placement will also receive one option for every two new shares subscribed, exercisable at A$0.039 per share.
The capital raise strengthens ADX’s balance sheet ahead of its 2026 work programme and effectively removes the funding overhang that had weighed on the stock.


Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

<ul><li>GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously.</li><li>Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025.</li><li>The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province.</li></ul>

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously.Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025.The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province.

Norway

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

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Equinor ASA (EQNR US)

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/11/2025

The capital raise strengthens ADX’s balance sheet ahead of its 2026 work programme and effectively removes the funding overhang that had weighed on...

Auctus Advisors

Monday Delight: 29/09/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/03/2025

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported...

Auctus Advisors

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