Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2023, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in September was 37%. The average YTD is 35%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/develop-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19413:1" rel="noopener">Develop Global (DVP AU)</a> swooped and announced a binding Scheme.</li>
<li>The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, who also owns a ~12.8% stake in Develop.</li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet is now out. Essential shareholders vote on the transaction on the 18 October, with implementation on the 6 November. The IE opines "not fair but reasonable". </li>
</ul>


After Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for Essential Metals (ESS AU), Develop Global (DVP AU) swooped and announced a binding Scheme.
The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, who also owns a ~12.8% stake in Develop.
The Scheme Booklet is now out. Essential shareholders vote on the transaction on the 18 October, with implementation on the 6 November. The IE opines "not fair but reasonable". 


Essential Metal: Shareholder Vote On 18th Oct. The IE Says Not Fair

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. </li>
<li>The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.</li>
<li>There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.</li>
</ul>


The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. 
The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on Origin Energy (ORG AU). Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.
There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3835:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals this week: Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU); Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ); Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP); and JMDC (4483 JP).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), United Malt (UMG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> merger; and the Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanei-architecture-planning" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2065:1" rel="noopener">Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesserent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30716:1" rel="noopener">Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals this week: the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger; and the Tender Offers for Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).
Key updates took place for Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), DDH1 (DDH AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), and Chindata Group (CD US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

Australia

Essential Metals Limited operates as an active exploration and development company. The Company focuses on discovering and producing metals essential such as gold, lithium, caesium, and nickel. Essential Metals serves clients in Australia.

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Essential Metals (ESS AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sept 2023: JMDC, Pact, Takisawa, Golden Eagle Energy, Dic Corp

For the month of September, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Essential Metal: Shareholder Vote On 18th Oct. The IE Says Not Fair

This is done. MinRes's support - and holding in both companies - all but blocks a competing Offer. I'd be long Essential, short Develop here....

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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