Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. </li>
<li>The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.</li>
<li>There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.</li>
</ul>


The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. 
The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on Origin Energy (ORG AU). Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.
There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3835:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals this week: Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU); Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ); Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP); and JMDC (4483 JP).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), United Malt (UMG AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> merger; and the Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanei-architecture-planning" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2065:1" rel="noopener">Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesserent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30716:1" rel="noopener">Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals this week: the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger; and the Tender Offers for Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).
Key updates took place for Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), DDH1 (DDH AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), and Chindata Group (CD US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

<ul>
<li>At the 20 April Scheme Meeting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> (with 19.55%) and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a>. </li>
<li>This left Essential in no man's land until MinRes (presumably) made a move. But on the 3 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/develop-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19413:1" rel="noopener">Develop Global (DVP AU)</a> announced a binding Scheme with ESS.</li>
<li>The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, which also owns a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02680585-6A1155937?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">~13% stake</a> in Develop. This deal - this time- looks all stitched up.</li>
</ul>


At the 20 April Scheme Meeting, Mineral Resources (MIN AU) (with 19.55%) and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for Essential Metals (ESS AU). 
This left Essential in no man's land until MinRes (presumably) made a move. But on the 3 July, Develop Global (DVP AU) announced a binding Scheme with ESS.
The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, which also owns a ~13% stake in Develop. This deal - this time- looks all stitched up.


Essential Metals/Develop Global: Rock Steady With MinRes Support

<ul>
<li>Aussie lithium miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> has inked a $US10bn+ merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> to form the world's fifth largest lithium producer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> tackled this "merger-of-equals" and the index implications in <a href="https://skr.ma/kwkmN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises</a>. </li>
<li>The spoils of ongoing lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries will ostensibly go to the prevalent, low-cost producer. Yet Livent shareholders may question the lack of premium in the transaction. </li>
</ul>


Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) has inked a $US10bn+ merger with Livent (LTHM US) to form the world's fifth largest lithium producer.

Travis Lundy tackled this "merger-of-equals" and the index implications in Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises. 
The spoils of ongoing lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries will ostensibly go to the prevalent, low-cost producer. Yet Livent shareholders may question the lack of premium in the transaction. 


Australia

Essential Metals Limited operates as an active exploration and development company. The Company focuses on discovering and producing metals essential such as gold, lithium, caesium, and nickel. Essential Metals serves clients in Australia.

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Essential Metals (ESS AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Essential Metals/Develop Global: Rock Steady With MinRes Support

This looks done. Trading wide at a gross/annualised spread of 10.5%/44.7%. If you can take down borrow cheaply, I'd be long Essential, short...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit

As Travis pointed out, a cross-border arb will be "difficult" because lithium is a bouncy theme and one could get legged pretty easily. To this,...

David Blennerhassett

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, United Malt, T&K Toka, Golden Eagle Energy, JMDC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Essential Metals/Develop Global: Rock Steady With MinRes Support

This looks done. Trading wide at a gross/annualised spread of 10.5%/44.7%. If you can take down borrow cheaply, I'd be long Essential, short...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit

As Travis pointed out, a cross-border arb will be "difficult" because lithium is a bouncy theme and one could get legged pretty easily. To this,...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem/Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit