External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Overall changes in aggregate positioning in the USD were little changed in this week’s CFTC data.</li>
<li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year (USD8.7bn).</li>
<li>Data shows that Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) pared back aggregate net long USD positioning slightly while Real Money Accounts (institutional investors) persisted with (slightly reduced) net USD shorts.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Overall changes in aggregate positioning in the USD were little changed in this week’s CFTC data.
Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year (USD8.7bn).
Data shows that Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) pared back aggregate net long USD positioning slightly while Real Money Accounts (institutional investors) persisted with (slightly reduced) net USD shorts.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Dip Back into Net EUR Longs

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.</li><li>In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.</li><li>This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.</li></ul>

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Credit

<ul><li>Last night, Huarong announced the 5th round of offshore bond repurchases. In this round, the repurchased amount was USD201.12mn in principal.</li><li>All of these were conducted between 12-19 Oct’23. The focuses remain to be on longerdated and lower cash price bonds.</li><li>HRINTHs are our top picks of the Chinese AMC sector given the better risk-return profiles and our expectation of further repurchases. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last night, Huarong announced the 5th round of offshore bond repurchases. In this round, the repurchased amount was USD201.12mn in principal.All of these were conducted between 12-19 Oct’23. The focuses remain to be on longerdated and lower cash price bonds.HRINTHs are our top picks of the Chinese AMC sector given the better risk-return profiles and our expectation of further repurchases. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.</li><li>The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.</li><li>The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Dip Back into Net EUR Longs

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could...

Steno Research

HRINTH: Room for further repurchases?

Last night, Huarong announced the 5th round of offshore bond repurchases. In this round, the repurchased amount was USD201.12mn in principal.

CMB International

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese...

Scotiabank

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