Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro.</li><li>I have spent the first few evenings in Spain investigating the intriguing differences between Europe and the US in monetary terms.</li><li>Conclusions up front:USD monetary trends keep outpacing EUR peers, leaving a stickier inflation picture ahead in the US.</li></ul>

Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro.I have spent the first few evenings in Spain investigating the intriguing differences between Europe and the US in monetary terms.Conclusions up front:USD monetary trends keep outpacing EUR peers, leaving a stickier inflation picture ahead in the US.

Money Watch: Monetary trends scream >2% inflation still (in the US)

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>The monetary policy account for the ECB’sSeptember meeting showed that the decision to hike rates by 25bp had been a close call, and part of the reason for taking this step was to buy insurance against unanticipated inflation developments</li><li>In fact, the tone of the account was more relaxed compared to previous accounts,illustrating growing confidence that the past measures would be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target.</li><li>Largely gone were the earlier worries about stagflation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The monetary policy account for the ECB’sSeptember meeting showed that the decision to hike rates by 25bp had been a close call, and part of the reason for taking this step was to buy insurance against unanticipated inflation developmentsIn fact, the tone of the account was more relaxed compared to previous accounts,illustrating growing confidence that the past measures would be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target.Largely gone were the earlier worries about stagflation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Just as consensus had started to gather around bear steepening driven by rising term premia, war in the Middle East adds to inflation and credit risks.</li><li>So far, the rise in oil prices has been modest.</li><li>However, a spike in energy prices is generally more likely to prompt rate hikes when following a period of too high inflation and less anchored inflation expectations</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Just as consensus had started to gather around bear steepening driven by rising term premia, war in the Middle East adds to inflation and credit risks.So far, the rise in oil prices has been modest.However, a spike in energy prices is generally more likely to prompt rate hikes when following a period of too high inflation and less anchored inflation expectationsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.</li><li>Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.</li><li>Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.</li></ul>

We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Money Watch: Monetary trends scream >2% inflation still (in the US)

Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro. I have spent the first...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: At the peak

The monetary policy account for the ECB’sSeptember meeting showed that the decision to hike rates by 25bp had been a close call

Nordea

EUR rates: From the frying pan...

Just as consensus had started to gather around bear steepening driven by rising term premia, war in the Middle East adds to inflation and credit risks

Nordea

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Happy Sunday everyone and welcome to our flagship editorial!I will keep it short and sweet this week on my way to Mallorca! We have now formalized...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

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