Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>European peace optimism driving continental asset prices, especially equities, while Chinese tech stocks sizzle hot in Asia</li><li>US real yields impacting global risky asset markets, with Fed's dovish reaction function leading to plummeting real yields</li><li>Dollar likely to stay soggy in short term until potential FOMC hawkishness or tariff-related events reignite Trump trades and boost dollar bullishness, while yen strength may not be sustainable due to BOJ policy and yield spread factors.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European peace optimism driving continental asset prices, especially equities, while Chinese tech stocks sizzle hot in AsiaUS real yields impacting global risky asset markets, with Fed's dovish reaction function leading to plummeting real yieldsDollar likely to stay soggy in short term until potential FOMC hawkishness or tariff-related events reignite Trump trades and boost dollar bullishness, while yen strength may not be sustainable due to BOJ policy and yield spread factors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar

<ul><li>The Fed kept policy rates unchanged as expected, but Chair Powell's press conference provided key insights on the Fed's stance</li><li>The Fed's focus on inflation and asymmetric reaction function suggests a possible delay in further rate cuts</li><li>Range-bound rate environment post-Fed meeting favors short gamma strategies for volatility sellers, while yield curve trading strategies may lack carry opportunities</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Fed kept policy rates unchanged as expected, but Chair Powell's press conference provided key insights on the Fed's stanceThe Fed's focus on inflation and asymmetric reaction function suggests a possible delay in further rate cutsRange-bound rate environment post-Fed meeting favors short gamma strategies for volatility sellers, while yield curve trading strategies may lack carry opportunitiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Basis reflects the US dollar scarcity premium, with a more negative basis indicating greater scarcity</li><li>Positive Euro US dollar basis is primarily driven by short-term tactical cross-border flows, not direct funding dynamics</li><li>Evolution of relative balance sheet dynamics between the Fed and ECB will be a dominant driver of the Euro US dollar basis going forward</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Basis reflects the US dollar scarcity premium, with a more negative basis indicating greater scarcityPositive Euro US dollar basis is primarily driven by short-term tactical cross-border flows, not direct funding dynamicsEvolution of relative balance sheet dynamics between the Fed and ECB will be a dominant driver of the Euro US dollar basis going forwardThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?

<ul><li>Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.</li><li>The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.</li><li>Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

<ul>
<li>Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond</li>
<li>Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar</li>
<li>Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar

Investors are optimistic about European peace, driving up continental asset prices and boosting equities, with Chinese tech stocks outpacing the...

At Any Rate

U.S. Rates - DeepFreeze

The FOMC kept policy rates unchanged, Chair Powell provided key insights during the press conference, economists expect two more cuts this year,...

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Global Rates: What drives European cross currency basis?

Eurodollar basis is the premium to borrow a dollar against their domestic currency, influenced by factors like interest rate differentials and...

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US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets remained stable at year end, with significant increases in Treasury sponsor repo balances and FICC sponsored repo usage, while the...

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Global FX: No calm before the storm

Overall, the update highlights various factors impacting market trends and currency movements, including resilience in survey data in Oregon,...

At Any Rate

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