FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Time to step back and take a breath in the FX market.  It lacks conviction, is displaying inconsistent correlations and being whipped around by competing news and views on uncertain events.  The market can no longer rely on the US government to act as a source of stability for global markets.  The rebound in Asian currencies is counterintuitive as US pressure mounts on Chinese trade and economic relations.  But it may reflect position adjustment, a pull-back in US yields, and US policy uncertainty.  The AUD continues to be supported by strong commodity prices, but domestic, Chinese and global financial stability risks, exacerbated by rising US rates, accounts for its weakness this year; we continue to see downside risks dominating

Time to step back and take a breath in the FX market.  It lacks conviction, is displaying inconsistent correlations and being whipped around by competing news and views on uncertain events.  The market can no longer rely on the US government to act as a source of stability for global markets.  The rebound in Asian currencies is counterintuitive as US pressure mounts on Chinese trade and economic relations.  But it may reflect position adjustment, a pull-back in US yields, and US policy uncertainty.  The AUD continues to be supported by strong commodity prices, but domestic, Chinese and global financial stability risks, exacerbated by rising US rates, accounts for its weakness this year; we continue to see downside risks dominating

Rebounds in Asian Currencies and AUD May Be Short-Lived

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Gold prices are near 8-year lows, despite growing turmoil and uncertainty across World asset markets</li>
<li>Many investors claim gold is 'undervalued' because of uncertainty, but gold is truly a Global Liquidity barometer</li>
<li>Global Liquidity is 'tight' and weak gold, flat yield curves, sluming EM equities and skidding cryptocurrencies confirm this</li>
<li>Gold is particularly sensitive to Central Bank liquidity injections. A recession in 2019 could be the trigger for a renewed policy easing, but until then we favour avoiding the bullion market</li>
</ul>


Gold prices are near 8-year lows, despite growing turmoil and uncertainty across World asset markets
Many investors claim gold is 'undervalued' because of uncertainty, but gold is truly a Global Liquidity barometer
Global Liquidity is 'tight' and weak gold, flat yield curves, sluming EM equities and skidding cryptocurrencies confirm this
Gold is particularly sensitive to Central Bank liquidity injections. A recession in 2019 could be the trigger for a renewed policy easing, but until then we favour avoiding the bullion market


US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year.  While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all that much in the last year or two, the USD experienced a broad-based rise in line with the rise in US yields today.  The rise in yields is too sharp, and risks surrounding other currencies (Italy-EUR, Brexit-GDP, tariffs/oil - Asia FX) too large to ignore.  Recent Fed comments suggest they will raise rates for some time, Amazon wage hikes gel with a tightening labor market, and US ISM reports are very strong.  Breakevens and term premium estimates have hardly moved this year and point to upside risk for US yields.

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year.  While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all that much in the last year or two, the USD experienced a broad-based rise in line with the rise in US yields today.  The rise in yields is too sharp, and risks surrounding other currencies (Italy-EUR, Brexit-GDP, tariffs/oil - Asia FX) too large to ignore.  Recent Fed comments suggest they will raise rates for some time, Amazon wage hikes gel with a tightening labor market, and US ISM reports are very strong.  Breakevens and term premium estimates have hardly moved this year and point to upside risk for US yields. 

<ul>
<li>EM currency prospects look better than in early 2018</li>
<li>EM economic and capital flow fundamentals have remained robust</li>
<li>We remain cautious because of weak Global Liquidity, but next up-cycle Asian-led</li>
<li>Watch for a signal from Asian yield curves that cycle is re-starting</li>
</ul>


EM currency prospects look better than in early 2018
EM economic and capital flow fundamentals have remained robust
We remain cautious because of weak Global Liquidity, but next up-cycle Asian-led
Watch for a signal from Asian yield curves that cycle is re-starting


EM Forex Risks Drop, Or Why Turkey Is The Turkey

<ul>
<li>Latest data through late-September show skidding Global Liquidity</li>
<li>Global Liquidity falling at fastest pace since 2008 GFC</li>
<li>Asia likely to lead new cycle upwards in 2019, but no signs yet</li>
<li>Watch out for more volatility, steepening yield curves and signs of economic slowdown</li>
</ul>


Latest data through late-September show skidding Global Liquidity
Global Liquidity falling at fastest pace since 2008 GFC
Asia likely to lead new cycle upwards in 2019, but no signs yet
Watch out for more volatility, steepening yield curves and signs of economic slowdown


Asian Central Banks Slow Liquidity Injections: Global Liquidity Slumps At Fastest Rate Since 2008

United States

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Rebounds in Asian Currencies and AUD May Be Short-Lived

Time to step back and take a breath in the FX market. It lacks conviction, is displaying inconsistent correlations and being whipped around by...

Greg Gibbs

Is Gold Bullion About To Break-Out?

Gold prices are near 8-year lows, despite growing turmoil and uncertainty across World asset markets Many investors claim gold is 'undervalued'...

Michael J. Howell

Old Skool Moves in US Yields and Dollar

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year. While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all...

Greg Gibbs

EM Forex Risks Drop, Or Why Turkey Is The Turkey

EM currency prospects look better than in early 2018 EM economic and capital flow fundamentals have remained robust We remain cautious because of...

Michael J. Howell

Asian Central Banks Slow Liquidity Injections: Global Liquidity Slumps At Fastest Rate Since 2008

Latest data through late-September show skidding Global Liquidity Global Liquidity falling at fastest pace since 2008 GFC Asia likely to lead new...

Michael J. Howell

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