FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters.  Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business activity and consumer confidence surveys suggest growth will sag through the rest of the year.  The RBNZ is likely to retain a neutral policy message in its statement next week, waiting for clearer evidence on the economy from Q3 labour and inflation reports.  The ANZ business activity survey next week may be important for near-term sentiment.  NZD gathered momentum from the GDP report and a broad rebound in global assets. The market continues to seek a big-picture top in the USD, but rising US inflation and tariff policy remain key supports for the USD.

Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters.  Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business activity and consumer confidence surveys suggest growth will sag through the rest of the year.  The RBNZ is likely to retain a neutral policy message in its statement next week, waiting for clearer evidence on the economy from Q3 labour and inflation reports.  The ANZ business activity survey next week may be important for near-term sentiment.  NZD gathered momentum from the GDP report and a broad rebound in global assets. The market continues to seek a big-picture top in the USD, but rising US inflation and tariff policy remain key supports for the USD. 

New Zealand GDP Post-Mortem – NZD Still Vulnerable

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

This webcast outlines pivotal chart points that can change the DM/EM spread and risk in Asia.
Shanghai composite bull reversal off of the 2016 low and break above tactical resistance does set a more bullish tone.
China A 50 futures are pressing on the 11,350/400 pattern breakout point that would shift risk dynamics in Asia (more bullish). HSI 27,500 will act as momentum point.
Nikkei bull breakout - We have been building a long position in Japan in anticipation of a bullish break above 23,000 pivot resistance that opens the way to our macro target above 25,000.
Break of NDX trendline sets in motion a big tech buckle that will impact US market breadth. Divergence underscore the fragile posture in the NDX.
The dollar is hanging on by a thread in Asia and caught between the Euro's bullish undertone and weak EM FX structures. 
US 10yr yield has broken higher out of bullish triangulation but is under scrutiny as previous attempts above 3% have faded. This will have a direct impact on the USD and the EM-DM spread.

This webcast outlines pivotal chart points that can change the DM/EM spread and risk in Asia.
Shanghai composite bull reversal off of the 2016 low and break above tactical resistance does set a more bullish tone.
China A 50 futures are pressing on the 11,350/400 pattern breakout point that would shift risk dynamics in Asia (more bullish). HSI 27,500 will act as momentum point.
Nikkei bull breakout - We have been building a long position in Japan in anticipation of a bullish break above 23,000 pivot resistance that opens the way to our macro target above 25,000.
Break of NDX trendline sets in motion a big tech buckle that will impact US market breadth. Divergence underscore the fragile posture in the NDX.
The dollar is hanging on by a thread in Asia and caught between the Euro's bullish undertone and weak EM FX structures. 
US 10yr yield has broken higher out of bullish triangulation but is under scrutiny as previous attempts above 3% have faded. This will have a direct impact on the USD and the EM-DM spread.

Hopes that the US and China will avert an all-out trade war and one low inflation print in the USA have sparked a ray of hope for emerging-market assets.  Hopes that UK PM May can navigate a Brexit plan through a fractured UK parliament have lifted the GBP.  The US mid-term elections are a risk for the continuity of US economic and trade policy.  In these days of extreme controversy over the leadership style of the US President, we cannot discount political chaos come November.  However, evidence of extreme tightening in the US labor market has kept US rates near their recent highs and may yet reassert USD strength.

Hopes that the US and China will avert an all-out trade war and one low inflation print in the USA have sparked a ray of hope for emerging-market assets.  Hopes that UK PM May can navigate a Brexit plan through a fractured UK parliament have lifted the GBP.  The US mid-term elections are a risk for the continuity of US economic and trade policy.  In these days of extreme controversy over the leadership style of the US President, we cannot discount political chaos come November.  However, evidence of extreme tightening in the US labor market has kept US rates near their recent highs and may yet reassert USD strength. 

Wading Through Event Risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed Policy, US Mid-Terms

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the economy and markets.  We expect this to push the USD to new highs in coming months, even if it points to longer-term risks for the US economy.  US Inflation pressure is a major risk for global asset prices, and the CPI data on Thursday may set the tone for the market as it contemplates further evidence of a tightening labor market.  Trade policy remains a weight on China and Asian markets.  There is no new news on Nafta, but a three-way deal with Canada still seems a likely outcome, helping support the CAD. The market expects no change in the ECB policy outlook.  Economic activity and inflation have been stable in recent months. However, European bank shares are significantly weaker, and Draghi is likely to display caution when facing probing questions on the multiple risks facing the region.

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the economy and markets.  We expect this to push the USD to new highs in coming months, even if it points to longer-term risks for the US economy.  US Inflation pressure is a major risk for global asset prices, and the CPI data on Thursday may set the tone for the market as it contemplates further evidence of a tightening labor market.  Trade policy remains a weight on China and Asian markets.  There is no new news on Nafta, but a three-way deal with Canada still seems a likely outcome, helping support the CAD. The market expects no change in the ECB policy outlook.  Economic activity and inflation have been stable in recent months. However, European bank shares are significantly weaker, and Draghi is likely to display caution when facing probing questions on the multiple risks facing the region.

The USA’s Late-Cycle Fiscal Adventure Kicks-In

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

The current bout of instability in global financial markets is the (inevitable) culmination of the Great Divergence between countries in economic, financial and corporate governance models, which has characterised the post-GFC environment. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22821" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22821:1">USD (USD CURNCY)</a> and equity markets are completing the journey from disgust to hubris which began in 2009, while emerging market equities and currencies are moving in the opposite direction.

The current bout of instability in global financial markets is the (inevitable) culmination of the Great Divergence between countries in economic, financial and corporate governance models, which has characterised the post-GFC environment. The USD (USD CURNCY) and equity markets are completing the journey from disgust to hubris which began in 2009, while emerging market equities and currencies are moving in the opposite direction.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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New Zealand GDP Post-Mortem – NZD Still Vulnerable

Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters. Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business...

Greg Gibbs

Charts That Matter

This webcast outlines pivotal chart points that can change the DM/EM spread and risk in Asia. Shanghai composite bull reversal off of the 2016 low...

Thomas Schroeder

Wading Through Event Risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed Policy, US Mid-Terms

Hopes that the US and China will avert an all-out trade war and one low inflation print in the USA have sparked a ray of hope for emerging-market...

Greg Gibbs

The USA’s Late-Cycle Fiscal Adventure Kicks-In

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the...

Greg Gibbs

Hubris, Disgust and the Great Divergence

The current bout of instability in global financial markets is the (inevitable) culmination of the Great Divergence between countries in economic,...

John-Paul Smith

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)