FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

It is easy to be cynical about newfound USD bullish sentiment, where suddenly yields and rates matter for currencies.  However, rates and yields have more often played a dominant role in currency markets.  Now that the equity market has become more volatile and confidence in the global economy has ebbed, we may see the USD continue to reconnect to its interest rate and yield differentials.  In more automated and index driven markets, we may see a surprisingly rapid rebound in the USD with limited retracement. Political uncertainty has weighed on the USD over the last year, but Trump has gained traction with tax reform, trade policy, progress in Korea, and can claim credit for stronger economic momentum.  A more assertive policy towards Syria and Iran may help improve Trump’s approval at home while increasing geopolitical uncertainty.  It is too early for the market to be fretting about twin deficits.  It needs to wait until there is a clearer picture of how Trump’s policies influence potential output, and the peak in US rates and yields are in sight.  AUD/USD has broken key support and maybe reconnecting to its now negative yield spread across its entire yield curve.  It faces headwinds from protectionist trade policies, tightening Chinese financial sector oversight, a weaker housing market, rising bank funding costs, pressure on its financial sector from a Royal Commission into its misconduct, and political uncertainty.

It is easy to be cynical about newfound USD bullish sentiment, where suddenly yields and rates matter for currencies.  However, rates and yields have more often played a dominant role in currency markets.  Now that the equity market has become more volatile and confidence in the global economy has ebbed, we may see the USD continue to reconnect to its interest rate and yield differentials.  In more automated and index driven markets, we may see a surprisingly rapid rebound in the USD with limited retracement. Political uncertainty has weighed on the USD over the last year, but Trump has gained traction with tax reform, trade policy, progress in Korea, and can claim credit for stronger economic momentum.  A more assertive policy towards Syria and Iran may help improve Trump’s approval at home while increasing geopolitical uncertainty.  It is too early for the market to be fretting about twin deficits.  It needs to wait until there is a clearer picture of how Trump’s policies influence potential output, and the peak in US rates and yields are in sight.  AUD/USD has broken key support and maybe reconnecting to its now negative yield spread across its entire yield curve.  It faces headwinds from protectionist trade policies, tightening Chinese financial sector oversight, a weaker housing market, rising bank funding costs, pressure on its financial sector from a Royal Commission into its misconduct, and political uncertainty.

Regime Change for the USD; AUD Breaks Down

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

This month we are turning bullish on the Dollar.  The main conclusions are:<ul><li>The Dollar Index had achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside last month, but there was still conflict in the signals. It had produced the minimum pattern needed to end the 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, its initial rally and correction off the Q1 low both had bullish shapes.  Since then a base-like pattern below 91.00 has begun to break upwards, targeting 93.70 minimum.  In practice, that means a retest…</li></ul>

This month we are turning bullish on the Dollar.  The main conclusions are:The Dollar Index had achieved almost all we expected of it on the downside last month, but there was still conflict in the signals. It had produced the minimum pattern needed to end the 5-wave decline from the 2017 high, its initial rally and correction off the Q1 low both had bullish shapes.  Since then a base-like pattern below 91.00 has begun to break upwards, targeting 93.70 minimum.  In practice, that means a retest…

The US economy has retained strong momentum, generally beating expectations, while the Eurozone economy has lost momentum and has consistently underwhelmed expectations over recent months.  The ECB said it has been monitoring strength in the EUR since January.  The evidence suggests that indeed EUR strength has contributed to weaker growth and is a problem for the ECB.  The EUR has fallen after the last four ECB meetings, as Draghi emphasised patience and warned of risks. The same appears likely this week. It may seem distracting to consider relative economic trends and rate spreads when the USD has suffered a big picture slump in confidence, but the background noise may no longer be drowning out the economic action at the front of the stage.

The US economy has retained strong momentum, generally beating expectations, while the Eurozone economy has lost momentum and has consistently underwhelmed expectations over recent months.  The ECB said it has been monitoring strength in the EUR since January.  The evidence suggests that indeed EUR strength has contributed to weaker growth and is a problem for the ECB.  The EUR has fallen after the last four ECB meetings, as Draghi emphasised patience and warned of risks. The same appears likely this week. It may seem distracting to consider relative economic trends and rate spreads when the USD has suffered a big picture slump in confidence, but the background noise may no longer be drowning out the economic action at the front of the stage.

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/049/770/original/CP%20header.jpg?1523938797" data-smartkarma-image-id="49770"></figure>We have made a case that EM FX is kicking off a cycle that will lead a USD key low in Asia stemming largely from the leading cycle in the TRY breakout and the secondary trigger breakout in BRL. We are seeing more signs of a reluctance for the USD trade low in in Asian FX and are gradually increasing USD long exposure which will play a role in the next equity decline in Asia.EM FX leading <div style="text-align: left;">To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1524024619361000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlIcjXS-97LJt3X7JzCjDcjpZQxw">https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE</a>  15:11 min.</div><div style="text-align: left;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/049/772/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1523938838" data-smartkarma-image-id="49772"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
DXY – DXY 89 is the…
</div>

We have made a case that EM FX is kicking off a cycle that will lead a USD key low in Asia stemming largely from the leading cycle in the TRY breakout and the secondary trigger breakout in BRL. We are seeing more signs of a reluctance for the USD trade low in in Asian FX and are gradually increasing USD long exposure which will play a role in the next equity decline in Asia.EM FX leading To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/lfUq75NsE  15:11 min.
FX webcast
DXY – DXY 89 is the…


EM FX Leading a Broader USD Cycle Low in Asia

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Regime Change for the USD; AUD Breaks Down

It is easy to be cynical about newfound USD bullish sentiment, where suddenly yields and rates matter for currencies. However, rates and yields...

Greg Gibbs

US Dollar: Monthly Currency Focus

This month we are turning bullish on the Dollar. The main conclusions are: The Dollar Index had achieved almost all we expected of it on the...

Peter Beuttell

Time for a EUR Reality Check

The US economy has retained strong momentum, generally beating expectations, while the Eurozone economy has lost momentum and has consistently...

Greg Gibbs

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer. The resumption of the rise in US...

Greg Gibbs

EM FX Leading a Broader USD Cycle Low in Asia

We have made a case that EM FX is kicking off a cycle that will lead a USD key low in Asia stemming largely from the leading cycle in the TRY...

Thomas Schroeder

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