FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates?  Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates.  But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies.  We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.  Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets.

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates?  Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates.  But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies.  We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.  Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets. 

In the next week or so, key US inflation data are released; wages data on Friday (6 Apr), PPI on the following Tuesday (10 Apr), and CPI on the following Wednesday (11 Apr).   FOMC minutes are also released on 11 April.  These data have sent mixed messages so far this year and contributed to the rise in bond yields and equity market upheaval in February. Temporary factors start to wash out of the CPI data, PPI is rising faster on a weaker USD and firmer commodity prices.  Tariff fears boosted the ISM prices data.  A tightening labor market may show up in wages, and the FOMC was more hawkish than widely perceived by a distracted market.

In the next week or so, key US inflation data are released; wages data on Friday (6 Apr), PPI on the following Tuesday (10 Apr), and CPI on the following Wednesday (11 Apr).   FOMC minutes are also released on 11 April.  These data have sent mixed messages so far this year and contributed to the rise in bond yields and equity market upheaval in February. Temporary factors start to wash out of the CPI data, PPI is rising faster on a weaker USD and firmer commodity prices.  Tariff fears boosted the ISM prices data.  A tightening labor market may show up in wages, and the FOMC was more hawkish than widely perceived by a distracted market.

Just when you think you have a bead on the likely direction in FX markets, you would be advised to sit, wait and consider taking the opposite view.  There have been a number of swings in the last month that have reversed and put the market back into the preceding range.  Issues the market is grappling with are US trade protectionist policy, a drop in confidence in the US high tech sector, US political chaos, thawing North Korean tensions, and tightening in USD short-term funding, spreading to higher Australian bank funding costs.  Just as trade fears may be easing, high tech sector woes may be increasing.  US political risk is likely to build into the mid-terms. As March draws to a close, it seems best to watch and wait for cleaner air to derive trading strategy.

Just when you think you have a bead on the likely direction in FX markets, you would be advised to sit, wait and consider taking the opposite view.  There have been a number of swings in the last month that have reversed and put the market back into the preceding range.  Issues the market is grappling with are US trade protectionist policy, a drop in confidence in the US high tech sector, US political chaos, thawing North Korean tensions, and tightening in USD short-term funding, spreading to higher Australian bank funding costs.  Just as trade fears may be easing, high tech sector woes may be increasing.  US political risk is likely to build into the mid-terms. As March draws to a close, it seems best to watch and wait for cleaner air to derive trading strategy.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


In President Trump’s favour, he at least seems to recognise the secular forces battering America. Three decades of the so-called Washington Consensus, whereby US policy encouraged liberal democracy, free trade, open capital markets and governance by super-national institutions, such as the UN, World Bank, IMF, WTO and NATO have left an uneven playing field. However, his latest proposed solution of increased tariffs cannot work against what we should all now be calling the Beijing Consensus.…

In President Trump’s favour, he at least seems to recognise the secular forces battering America. Three decades of the so-called Washington Consensus, whereby US policy encouraged liberal democracy, free trade, open capital markets and governance by super-national institutions, such as the UN, World Bank, IMF, WTO and NATO have left an uneven playing field. However, his latest proposed solution of increased tariffs cannot work against what we should all now be calling the Beijing Consensus.…

Why A Trade War Will Not Save The Trump Dollar

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Benchmark crude futures prices jumped nearly 3% Wednesday, inching close to the three-year highs notched in January, as an across-the-board drawdown in US commercial crude and refined product inventories amplified market perception of gradually tightening supplies.Crude was continuing to climb early Thursday in Asia on the back of some residual momentum from Wednesday’s session, with ICE Brent futures changing hands around $69.53/barrel and NYMEX WTI around $65.27 at 0200 GMT.Growing fears over…

Benchmark crude futures prices jumped nearly 3% Wednesday, inching close to the three-year highs notched in January, as an across-the-board drawdown in US commercial crude and refined product inventories amplified market perception of gradually tightening supplies.Crude was continuing to climb early Thursday in Asia on the back of some residual momentum from Wednesday’s session, with ICE Brent futures changing hands around $69.53/barrel and NYMEX WTI around $65.27 at 0200 GMT.Growing fears over…

Flash Oil Update: Crude Prices Hit 2-Month Highs

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates? Some have argued that...

Greg Gibbs

What Next for US Inflation?

In the next week or so, key US inflation data are released; wages data on Friday (6 Apr), PPI on the following Tuesday (10 Apr), and CPI on the...

Greg Gibbs

Does Anything in FX Make Sense Anymore?

Just when you think you have a bead on the likely direction in FX markets, you would be advised to sit, wait and consider taking the opposite...

Greg Gibbs

Why A Trade War Will Not Save The Trump Dollar

In President Trump’s favour, he at least seems to recognise the secular forces battering America. Three decades of the so-called Washington...

Michael J. Howell

Flash Oil Update: Crude Prices Hit 2-Month Highs

Benchmark crude futures prices jumped nearly 3% Wednesday, inching close to the three-year highs notched in January, as an across-the-board...

Vandana Hari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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