FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange fluctuations on economic growth and corporate performance.Weakness in the dollar is largely attributable to the continued accommodative stance of US monetary policy, as well as a growing belief that the Trump Administration is not necessarily committed to a strong currency.History suggests no consistent relationship between the dollar and US economic expansions, although the attitudes of prior Administrations have seemingly played a significant role in the movement of the exchange rate.A full-blown currency war of competitive devaluations still looks unlikely due to the risks of significant global financial upheaval and, consequently, major political fallout.Bullish US profit expectations for 2018 are underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate and an implicit assumption that the US dollar will still be beneficial for corporate earnings.Any refusal by foreign exchange markets to trust future assurances by the Trump Administration that it supports a strong dollar will be a red flag for US bonds and equities.

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange fluctuations on economic growth and corporate performance.Weakness in the dollar is largely attributable to the continued accommodative stance of US monetary policy, as well as a growing belief that the Trump Administration is not necessarily committed to a strong currency.History suggests no consistent relationship between the dollar and US economic expansions, although the attitudes of prior Administrations have seemingly played a significant role in the movement of the exchange rate.A full-blown currency war of competitive devaluations still looks unlikely due to the risks of significant global financial upheaval and, consequently, major political fallout.Bullish US profit expectations for 2018 are underpinned by a lower corporate tax rate and an implicit assumption that the US dollar will still be beneficial for corporate earnings.Any refusal by foreign exchange markets to trust future assurances by the Trump Administration that it supports a strong dollar will be a red flag for US bonds and equities.

US Dollar Becomes the Looming Red Flag for Equities and Bonds

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/043/331/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-30%20at%204.10.40%20PM.png?1517290876" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="43331"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
Almost unnoticed given the focus on the superficially disappointing Q4 GDP data was <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-26/u-s-goods-trade-gap-unexpectedly-widened-in-december" target="_blank">the news that the US goods trade deficit in December was the widest since August 2008.</a> At $71.6bn in December, the deficit has widened by over $8bn over the last year; an increase of comfortably more than 10%. 
Looking at the underlying drivers of the deficit offers important insights into the US's macro-conjuncture and, in turn, asset allocation. With exports up 9.2% y/y in December, it is the US's surging…
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Almost unnoticed given the focus on the superficially disappointing Q4 GDP data was the news that the US goods trade deficit in December was the widest since August 2008. At $71.6bn in December, the deficit has widened by over $8bn over the last year; an increase of comfortably more than 10%. 
Looking at the underlying drivers of the deficit offers important insights into the US's macro-conjuncture and, in turn, asset allocation. With exports up 9.2% y/y in December, it is the US's surging…


Chart of the Day: That 2008 Feeling...Part 2

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/043/154/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-29%20at%208.30.30%20AM.png?1517176854" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="43154"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
At 2.6% q/q SAAR,<a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/pdf/gdp4q17_adv.pdf" target="_blank"> the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP</a> was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look. Private-sector domestic demand (what maters most for equities) in fact surged on some measures at its fastest pace in over a decade. Booming domestic demand sucking in imports at close to their fastest pace in a decade was the dominant factor crimping headline growth. 
The key metric to focus on in the GDP report is final sales to private domestic…
</div>


At 2.6% q/q SAAR, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look. Private-sector domestic demand (what maters most for equities) in fact surged on some measures at its fastest pace in over a decade. Booming domestic demand sucking in imports at close to their fastest pace in a decade was the dominant factor crimping headline growth. 
The key metric to focus on in the GDP report is final sales to private domestic…


United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and...

Greg Gibbs

US Dollar Becomes the Looming Red Flag for Equities and Bonds

Dollar weakness has put currency and equity markets onto a potential collision course due to the redistributive effects of foreign exchange...

DeSaque Macro Research

Chart of the Day: That 2008 Feeling...Part 2

Almost unnoticed given the focus on the superficially disappointing Q4 GDP data was the news that the US goods trade deficit in December was the...

Richard Iley

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break...

Thomas Schroeder

Chart of the Day: What Lies Beneath

At 2.6% q/q SAAR, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look....

Richard Iley

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