Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

We have grown worried by the capital concentration in US assets, particularly in so-called ‘safe’ assets like Treasuries and the US dollar. Similar events occurred in 1987 ahead of the October stock market crash, and although conditions for a similar crash may be months away the triggers, namely rising bond yields and a weak USD need to be closely watched. As WarrenBuffett suggests: 'enjoy the party, but dance near the door'.Behind these 1987 triggers were two liquidity taps which quickly shut-o…

We have grown worried by the capital concentration in US assets, particularly in so-called ‘safe’ assets like Treasuries and the US dollar. Similar events occurred in 1987 ahead of the October stock market crash, and although conditions for a similar crash may be months away the triggers, namely rising bond yields and a weak USD need to be closely watched. As WarrenBuffett suggests: 'enjoy the party, but dance near the door'.Behind these 1987 triggers were two liquidity taps which quickly shut-o…

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

FX & Rates

The U.S. is headed to record trade deficits and increased fiscal deficits over our forecast horizon of 2018-19.  In inflation-adjusted terms, we project that the trade deficit will widen from $618 billion in 2017 to $715 billion in 2018 and rise further to $836 billion in 2019.  The source of the widening in the trade deficit is the boost to demand—especially investment spending—from the cut in taxes at a time when the U.S. economy is close to full employment.  Over time, higher capital spending…

The U.S. is headed to record trade deficits and increased fiscal deficits over our forecast horizon of 2018-19.  In inflation-adjusted terms, we project that the trade deficit will widen from $618 billion in 2017 to $715 billion in 2018 and rise further to $836 billion in 2019.  The source of the widening in the trade deficit is the boost to demand—especially investment spending—from the cut in taxes at a time when the U.S. economy is close to full employment.  Over time, higher capital spending…

The U.S. Dollar: Deficits, Tax Cuts, and Mnuchin's Jawboning

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

This won’t necessarily sound ground-breaking for many market observers, but the weak USD reflects the bull market in global equities.  Interest rate differentials are playing a very limited role in the FX market, less so than they have for a long time.  The divergence between interest rate spreads and many currencies’ exchange rate to the USD is around historical wides. Several factors are accentuating this divergence and may continue to do so for some time.

This won’t necessarily sound ground-breaking for many market observers, but the weak USD reflects the bull market in global equities.  Interest rate differentials are playing a very limited role in the FX market, less so than they have for a long time.  The divergence between interest rate spreads and many currencies’ exchange rate to the USD is around historical wides. Several factors are accentuating this divergence and may continue to do so for some time.

Stable Genius or Dumb Luck, Trump Gets a Weak Dollar

In our post on Monday (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-white-trashing-of-the-us-dollar" target="_blank">The white trashing of the US dollar</a>), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a strengthening US economy and rising inflation expectations.  As such, a better strategy may be the consider the implications of a weaker USD in this context.  In particular, it should add to upside pressure on US yields. Below we discuss this and other reasons to see higher US and global bond yields.

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a strengthening US economy and rising inflation expectations.  As such, a better strategy may be the consider the implications of a weaker USD in this context.  In particular, it should add to upside pressure on US yields. Below we discuss this and other reasons to see higher US and global bond yields.

A recent off-hand remark (since denied) has questioned the willingness of China to continue buying US Treasuries. Coincidently the USD has since tumbled. Doubts remain.The existential debate over the future of the US dollar is becoming polarised between those who, in fact, wrongly claim that China has no choice, since economic arithmetic compels them to buy USD, and those realists who acknowledge China’s desire to replace the USD in Asia. The Europeans had a similar desire some 40-years ago to…

A recent off-hand remark (since denied) has questioned the willingness of China to continue buying US Treasuries. Coincidently the USD has since tumbled. Doubts remain.The existential debate over the future of the US dollar is becoming polarised between those who, in fact, wrongly claim that China has no choice, since economic arithmetic compels them to buy USD, and those realists who acknowledge China’s desire to replace the USD in Asia. The Europeans had a similar desire some 40-years ago to…

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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A 2018 Crash: 1987 Redux?

We have grown worried by the capital concentration in US assets, particularly in so-called ‘safe’ assets like Treasuries and the US dollar. Similar...

Michael J. Howell

The U.S. Dollar: Deficits, Tax Cuts, and Mnuchin's Jawboning

The U.S. is headed to record trade deficits and increased fiscal deficits over our forecast horizon of 2018-19. In inflation-adjusted terms, we...

RDQ Economics

Stable Genius or Dumb Luck, Trump Gets a Weak Dollar

This won’t necessarily sound ground-breaking for many market observers, but the weak USD reflects the bull market in global equities. Interest...

Greg Gibbs

Multiple Upside Risks for US Bond Yields

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in...

Greg Gibbs

China's Biggest 'Big' Question

A recent off-hand remark (since denied) has questioned the willingness of China to continue buying US Treasuries. Coincidently the USD has since...

Michael J. Howell

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