Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US monetary policy conduct remains data dependent following Fed Chairman Powell's dovish pivot. The US dollar has weakened, but the economic growth outlook for 2025 should increasingly drive currency movements.</li>
<li>Dollar weakness could force foreign investors to liquidate positions in US financial markets. High hedging costs have raised the spectre of significantly larger losses for foreign investors. </li>
<li>European private investors have become important marginal buyers of US Treasury securities since early 2023. Higher volatility Treasury yields could occur if foreign hedge funds exit without new marginal buyers.</li>
</ul>


US monetary policy conduct remains data dependent following Fed Chairman Powell's dovish pivot. The US dollar has weakened, but the economic growth outlook for 2025 should increasingly drive currency movements.
Dollar weakness could force foreign investors to liquidate positions in US financial markets. High hedging costs have raised the spectre of significantly larger losses for foreign investors. 
European private investors have become important marginal buyers of US Treasury securities since early 2023. Higher volatility Treasury yields could occur if foreign hedge funds exit without new marginal buyers.


High Foreign Participation Presents Challenges for US Financial Markets Despite Fed Pivot

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s been a busy week in Chicago.</li><li>I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy ramifications of a star-studded DNC 2024.</li><li>A week ago, Vice President Kamala Harris provided a brief glimpse of her economic program, when she spoke at a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina.</li></ul>

It’s been a busy week in Chicago.I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy ramifications of a star-studded DNC 2024.A week ago, Vice President Kamala Harris provided a brief glimpse of her economic program, when she spoke at a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.</li><li>Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.</li><li>Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Most risky assets have recovered the lost ground from the US recession scare. Central bank pricing has not!</li><li>It will take quite a shock quite soon to realise the ECB pricing for this year. We recommend paying the front ECB contracts.</li><li>One thing is the Fed pricing. It was a US recession scare after all. But the ECB pricing? </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Most risky assets have recovered the lost ground from the US recession scare. Central bank pricing has not!It will take quite a shock quite soon to realise the ECB pricing for this year. We recommend paying the front ECB contracts.One thing is the Fed pricing. It was a US recession scare after all. But the ECB pricing? Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.</li><li>Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.</li></ul>

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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High Foreign Participation Presents Challenges for US Financial Markets Despite Fed Pivot

US monetary policy remains data dependent despite the recent dovish pivot. High foreign participation in US financial markets, notably Treasuries,...

DeSaque Macro Research

Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC

It’s been a busy week in Chicago. I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy...

Steno Research

Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag

In summary, lower interest rates in the US are leading to uncertainty in the currency markets, with dollar strength being challenged by weakening...

At Any Rate

EUR rates: Paying the front

Most risky assets have recovered the lost ground from the US recession scare. Central bank pricing has not! It will take quite a shock quite soon...

Nordea

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address...

Steno Research

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