Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.</li><li>Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.</li><li>When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.</li></ul>

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to recover fast after inflation/rate shocks these months as the anticipated lean from central banks remains dovish.</li><li>In this short G3 rates watch, we take a practical stance on the R* concept.</li><li>If an economy can re-accelerate given current rate levels, it seems likely that R* is even higher than thought by many economists including the entire ilk of PhDs at the Federal Reserve.</li></ul>

What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to recover fast after inflation/rate shocks these months as the anticipated lean from central banks remains dovish.In this short G3 rates watch, we take a practical stance on the R* concept.If an economy can re-accelerate given current rate levels, it seems likely that R* is even higher than thought by many economists including the entire ilk of PhDs at the Federal Reserve.

G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.</li>
<li>Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.</li>
<li>Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.</li>
</ul>


March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.
Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.
Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.


[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Rates are moving more or less sideways.</li><li>We stick to the view that risk/reward favours receiving in the short end.</li><li>Curves are more or less unchanged and with negative carry and roll, steepeners are losing some of their shine.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Rates are moving more or less sideways.We stick to the view that risk/reward favours receiving in the short end.Curves are more or less unchanged and with negative carry and roll, steepeners are losing some of their shine.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking efforts in Copper space.</li><li>As the price trends are diverging in copper versus steel and iron ore, the strategic initiatives of China are becoming increasingly evident in price action across the commodity complex, but we are yet to fully understand and accept the ramifications for global rates.</li><li>We have read plenty of bad takes on why China is building up copper reserves and the most obvious reason seems to be neglected by many.</li></ul>

The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking efforts in Copper space.As the price trends are diverging in copper versus steel and iron ore, the strategic initiatives of China are becoming increasingly evident in price action across the commodity complex, but we are yet to fully understand and accept the ramifications for global rates.We have read plenty of bad takes on why China is building up copper reserves and the most obvious reason seems to be neglected by many.

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!

What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to...

Steno Research

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

EUR rates: Inflation, what inflation?

We stick to the view that risk/reward favours receiving in the short end. Curves are more or less unchanged and with negative carry and roll,...

Nordea

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!

What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to...

Steno Research

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

​March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

EUR rates: Inflation, what inflation?

We stick to the view that risk/reward favours receiving in the short end. Curves are more or less unchanged and with negative carry and roll,...

Nordea

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking...

Steno Research

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...