Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with M2 nominally trending almost 4 trillion USDs above a long-term trajectory.</li><li>The similar trend in EURs is much less extraordinary with M2 currently 7% above trend, which translates to a little more than 1 trillion EURs nominally.</li><li>There is still a large excess of USDs in the systemSo where are those excess USDs parked?</li></ul>

If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with M2 nominally trending almost 4 trillion USDs above a long-term trajectory.The similar trend in EURs is much less extraordinary with M2 currently 7% above trend, which translates to a little more than 1 trillion EURs nominally.There is still a large excess of USDs in the systemSo where are those excess USDs parked?

Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Non-commercial (speculative) sentiment favouring the USD moderated slightly in the past week’s data.</li><li>Speculative, aggregate net USD longs edged a little lower in the most recent week’s data to USD832mn, down just under USD600mn from the prior week’s report.</li><li>Additional data showed Real Money (institutional traders) paring aggregate USD shorts by around USD5bn in the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) cut limited aggregate exposure to the USD long side down from USD2.8bn in the prior week to an all but flat USD400mn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Non-commercial (speculative) sentiment favouring the USD moderated slightly in the past week’s data.Speculative, aggregate net USD longs edged a little lower in the most recent week’s data to USD832mn, down just under USD600mn from the prior week’s report.Additional data showed Real Money (institutional traders) paring aggregate USD shorts by around USD5bn in the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) cut limited aggregate exposure to the USD long side down from USD2.8bn in the prior week to an all but flat USD400mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment Moderates

<ul><li>A mild bid for the USD generally yesterday developed a little more in overnight trade, largely reflecting weaker risk appetite as stocks in Asia and Europe (mostly) weakened.</li><li>US equity futures are in the red at writing while crude prices have slipped around 1% on the session as well.</li><li>Bonds are firmer, driving yields 1-2bps lower across the major markets. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A mild bid for the USD generally yesterday developed a little more in overnight trade, largely reflecting weaker risk appetite as stocks in Asia and Europe (mostly) weakened.US equity futures are in the red at writing while crude prices have slipped around 1% on the session as well.Bonds are firmer, driving yields 1-2bps lower across the major markets. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Rate cuts have been priced out fast during February.</li><li>Going into the March ECB meeting, less than four rate cuts are priced for 2024 and only one rate cut is priced by June.</li><li>We believe three rate cuts are as low as markets can go without significant changes to the macro picture given that the ECB is fixated on a June rate cut.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rate cuts have been priced out fast during February.Going into the March ECB meeting, less than four rate cuts are priced for 2024 and only one rate cut is priced by June.We believe three rate cuts are as low as markets can go without significant changes to the macro picture given that the ECB is fixated on a June rate cut.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EUR rates: Four 2024 rate cuts and counting

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.</li><li>A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.</li><li>As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed

If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment Moderates

Waning speculative USD sentiment reflects trends in other indicators suggesting that the improvement in the broad USD tone since the start of the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Soft Risk Mood

A mild bid for the USD generally yesterday developed a little more in overnight trade, largely reflecting weaker risk appetite as stocks in Asia...

Scotiabank

EUR rates: Four 2024 rate cuts and counting

We believe three rate cuts are as low as markets can go without significant changes to the macro picture given that the ECB is fixated on a June...

Nordea

Forex Medium-Term Outlook(Feb, 2024)

A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling

Mizuho

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)