External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders on the USD picked up in the past week’s CFTC data.</li><li>Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money (institutional traders) added to their net short USD exposure (by USD1.8bn), however.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders on the USD picked up in the past week’s CFTC data.Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.Data shows that Real Money (institutional traders) added to their net short USD exposure (by USD1.8bn), however.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.</li><li>The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.</li><li>The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on Friday</li><li>ECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currencies</li><li>Revision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strength</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on FridayECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currenciesRevision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strengthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

<ul><li>Major currencies are narrowly mixed for the most part in quiet trade ahead of today’s US data releases.</li><li>The exception is the JPY which is reflecting a relatively decent (0.5%) gain on the USD following comments last night from BoJ Governor Takata.</li><li>He commented that the central bank’s price target was “finally coming into sight”, suggesting the BoJ may be closer to a rate hike. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major currencies are narrowly mixed for the most part in quiet trade ahead of today’s US data releases.The exception is the JPY which is reflecting a relatively decent (0.5%) gain on the USD following comments last night from BoJ Governor Takata.He commented that the central bank’s price target was “finally coming into sight”, suggesting the BoJ may be closer to a rate hike. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of PCE data, JPY Firmer

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off.</li><li>End of discussion.</li><li>Rents, energy-tariffs / network-prices and a few wage heavy service categories continue to keep February inflation numbers elevated, albeit substantially lower than in 2023, and our nowcasts suffer a bit from changes in lead/lags on especially wage heavy categories.</li></ul>

We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off.End of discussion.Rents, energy-tariffs / network-prices and a few wage heavy service categories continue to keep February inflation numbers elevated, albeit substantially lower than in 2023, and our nowcasts suffer a bit from changes in lead/lags on especially wage heavy categories.

EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves

Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial. The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a...

Steno Research

Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

Chair Powell will deliver testimony to Congress, February employment data will be released, the ECB will make a decision, and Mira Chandan will...

At Any Rate

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of PCE data, JPY Firmer

He commented that the central bank’s price target was “finally coming into sight”, suggesting the BoJ may be closer to a rate hike.

Scotiabank

EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..

We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off. End of discussion. Rents, energy-tariffs /...

Steno Research

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