Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the year</li><li>Labor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertainty</li><li>Options markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trend</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the yearLabor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertaintyOptions markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trendThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD retains a soft undertone overall but trade is on the quiet side to start the week and tomorrow’s US CPI report—and no data of note today— will probably keep trading subdued today.</li><li>The JPY remains firm, gaining another 0.25% on the session, as markets position for a potential tightening in BoJ policy as soon as next week’s BoJ meeting.</li><li>The broader USD slide over the past week may have stabilized in the short run, however, with Friday’s price action suggesting some consolidation in the weak tone after an extended run lower from the middle of last month.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD retains a soft undertone overall but trade is on the quiet side to start the week and tomorrow’s US CPI report—and no data of note today— will probably keep trading subdued today.The JPY remains firm, gaining another 0.25% on the session, as markets position for a potential tightening in BoJ policy as soon as next week’s BoJ meeting.The broader USD slide over the past week may have stabilized in the short run, however, with Friday’s price action suggesting some consolidation in the weak tone after an extended run lower from the middle of last month.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - Soft USD Awaits CPI for Next Directional Cue

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Today’s US CPI report was clearly hawkish on the surface, but looking closely, it is not all too demoralizing for those betting on continued risk-rallies and a path back to target.</li><li>Clear path and further downside to OER according to Zillow and repeat rent.</li><li>Though a modest surprise, components are not alarming albeit not helping Fed’s intentions.</li></ul>

Today’s US CPI report was clearly hawkish on the surface, but looking closely, it is not all too demoralizing for those betting on continued risk-rallies and a path back to target.Clear path and further downside to OER according to Zillow and repeat rent.Though a modest surprise, components are not alarming albeit not helping Fed’s intentions.

US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The dollar/yen pair opened February trading at the 146 yen range on the slightly hawkish contents of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting and FRB chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the FOMC meeting.</li><li>US interest rates fell on February 1 on some weak US employment statistics and the bearish movements of US regional bank stocks, with the currency pair also sliding temporarily to 145.90 yen.</li><li>However, it then rocketed to the mid-148 yen mark on February 2 after the US released some very strong employment data for January. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The dollar/yen pair opened February trading at the 146 yen range on the slightly hawkish contents of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting and FRB chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the FOMC meeting.US interest rates fell on February 1 on some weak US employment statistics and the bearish movements of US regional bank stocks, with the currency pair also sliding temporarily to 145.90 yen.However, it then rocketed to the mid-148 yen mark on February 2 after the US released some very strong employment data for January. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Last week's key events included Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony and the non farm payrolls report, with a focus on the need for more data...

At Any Rate

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

FX Daily - Soft USD Awaits CPI for Next Directional Cue

The USD retains a soft undertone overall but trade is on the quiet side to start the week and tomorrow’s US CPI report—and no data of note today—...

Scotiabank

US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets

Today’s US CPI report was clearly hawkish on the surface, but looking closely, it is not all too demoralizing for those betting on continued...

Steno Research

Mizuho Dealer's Eye (Mar, 2024)

The dollar/yen pair opened February trading at the 146 yen range on the slightly hawkish contents of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting

Mizuho

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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