External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Yesterday’s FOMC failed to deliver the hawkish policy messaging that many in the market feared.</li><li>The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.</li><li>Longer run rate projections were lifted a little though and the economic projections reflected a bias towards stronger growth and somewhat higher inflation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yesterday’s FOMC failed to deliver the hawkish policy messaging that many in the market feared.The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.Longer run rate projections were lifted a little though and the economic projections reflected a bias towards stronger growth and somewhat higher inflation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed as CHF Slides on Surprise SNB Rate Cut

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  </li>
<li>QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. </li>
<li>Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. </li>
</ul>


The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  
QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. 
Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. 


Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

<ul><li>The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to the FOMC meeting outcome.</li><li>Stocks are trading lower in Europe and US equity futures are softer. Bonds are marginally better bid, pushing 10Y yields down 1-2bps.</li><li>The JPY is particularly weak, trading at its lowest since 2008 against the EUR and nearing recent, multi-year lows against the USD just under 152.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to the FOMC meeting outcome.Stocks are trading lower in Europe and US equity futures are softer. Bonds are marginally better bid, pushing 10Y yields down 1-2bps.The JPY is particularly weak, trading at its lowest since 2008 against the EUR and nearing recent, multi-year lows against the USD just under 152.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Strengthens into Fed Decision

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.</li><li>Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.</li><li>The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.</li></ul>

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

<ul><li>Bullish dollar sentiment has failed to develop significant momentum over the past weeks and the latest snapshot of positioning amongst IMM-based Non-Commercial traders reflects a further pullback in the speculative USD mood.</li><li>Non-Commercial accounts’ exposure to the (net) long USD trade fell USD1.7bn this week to leave the aggregate bull bet on the USD at just USD445mn.</li><li>Additional data showed Real Money (institutional traders) added around USD6bn to their persistent net USD short positioning, however, while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) added USD4bn to a still relatively small net USD long. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bullish dollar sentiment has failed to develop significant momentum over the past weeks and the latest snapshot of positioning amongst IMM-based Non-Commercial traders reflects a further pullback in the speculative USD mood.Non-Commercial accounts’ exposure to the (net) long USD trade fell USD1.7bn this week to leave the aggregate bull bet on the USD at just USD445mn.Additional data showed Real Money (institutional traders) added around USD6bn to their persistent net USD short positioning, however, while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) added USD4bn to a still relatively small net USD long. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Slips into Neutral

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Mixed as CHF Slides on Surprise SNB Rate Cut

The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.

Scotiabank

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FX Daily - USD Strengthens into Fed Decision

The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to...

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy. Afterwards we will have a...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Slips into Neutral

Non-Commercial accounts’ exposure to the (net) long USD trade fell USD1.7bn this week to leave the aggregate bull bet on the USD at just USD445mn.

Scotiabank

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

FX Daily - USD Mixed as CHF Slides on Surprise SNB Rate Cut

The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.

Scotiabank

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

​Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FX Daily - USD Strengthens into Fed Decision

The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to...

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy. Afterwards we will have a...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Slips into Neutral

Non-Commercial accounts’ exposure to the (net) long USD trade fell USD1.7bn this week to leave the aggregate bull bet on the USD at just USD445mn.

Scotiabank

Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...