External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>The ECB’s new policy framework makes it more likely to succeed with balance-sheet normalisation, leading to steeper curves and tighter asset swap spreads eventually.</li><li>Markets may have been off to a head start, though.</li><li>Today, the ECB published its new policy framework. Near-term implications are mostly in the nitty gritty stuff while the longer-term implication is that the new framework will make it more likely that the ECB can complete policy normalisation without liquidity stress, leaving curves steeper and asset swap spreads tighter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The ECB’s new policy framework makes it more likely to succeed with balance-sheet normalisation, leading to steeper curves and tighter asset swap spreads eventually.Markets may have been off to a head start, though.Today, the ECB published its new policy framework. Near-term implications are mostly in the nitty gritty stuff while the longer-term implication is that the new framework will make it more likely that the ECB can complete policy normalisation without liquidity stress, leaving curves steeper and asset swap spreads tighter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>As we reached the end of 2023, EURUSD basis hit the highest levels seen for a very long time – especially in the short end.</li><li>In “cash-terms” this can be interpreted as the demand for US dollars has been very low – or in relative terms – EUR has become more expensive.</li><li>With risk sentiment remaining overall positive, we don’t see this changing in March; Relative excess liquidity between USD and EUR could impact the outlook for the front slightly lowerin the near future– more on that later in this publication.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As we reached the end of 2023, EURUSD basis hit the highest levels seen for a very long time – especially in the short end.In “cash-terms” this can be interpreted as the demand for US dollars has been very low – or in relative terms – EUR has become more expensive.With risk sentiment remaining overall positive, we don’t see this changing in March; Relative excess liquidity between USD and EUR could impact the outlook for the front slightly lowerin the near future– more on that later in this publication.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly 5 Things We Watch, where we go through 5 things that we keep an eye on in the world of global macro.</li><li>With Japanese wage negotiations and the US CPI report out, there are plenty of things to shed some light on, so let’s get to it!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US CPI, Japan, China, Germany, Central Banks.</li><li>1) US CPI Report leaves the Fed in a difficult situation. Yesterday’s CPI report revealed that the inflation outlook is not as benign as the Fed would have hoped, with energy / transportation services dragging the MoM figure higher.</li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly 5 Things We Watch, where we go through 5 things that we keep an eye on in the world of global macro.With Japanese wage negotiations and the US CPI report out, there are plenty of things to shed some light on, so let’s get to it!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US CPI, Japan, China, Germany, Central Banks.1) US CPI Report leaves the Fed in a difficult situation. Yesterday’s CPI report revealed that the inflation outlook is not as benign as the Fed would have hoped, with energy / transportation services dragging the MoM figure higher.

5 Things We Watch – US CPI, Japan, China, Germany & Central Banks

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.</li><li>The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.</li><li>This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.</li></ul>

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

<ul><li>In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention or provide food for thought on topics of relevance that seem neglected by the economic consensus.</li><li>After the change in methodology to the CPI basket in 1983, interest rates aren’t reflected to the same extent as before in the inflation basket.</li><li>But that also means that Americans feel rising costs of living to a larger extent than the CPI basket reflects.</li></ul>

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention or provide food for thought on topics of relevance that seem neglected by the economic consensus.After the change in methodology to the CPI basket in 1983, interest rates aren’t reflected to the same extent as before in the inflation basket.But that also means that Americans feel rising costs of living to a larger extent than the CPI basket reflects.

Out of the Box: Cut Rates if You Want Lower Inflation, Powell

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EUR Rates: Strategy Review

The ECB’s new policy framework makes it more likely to succeed with balance-sheet normalisation, leading to steeper curves and tighter asset swap...

Nordea

Nordea XCCY publication: Q2-2024

In “cash-terms” this can be interpreted as the demand for US dollars has been very low – or in relative terms – EUR has become more expensive.

Nordea

5 Things We Watch – US CPI, Japan, China, Germany & Central Banks

Welcome back to our weekly 5 Things We Watch, where we go through 5 things that we keep an eye on in the world of global macro. With Japanese wage...

Steno Research

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment...

Steno Research

Out of the Box: Cut Rates if You Want Lower Inflation, Powell

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

Steno Research

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