FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year.  While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all that much in the last year or two, the USD experienced a broad-based rise in line with the rise in US yields today.  The rise in yields is too sharp, and risks surrounding other currencies (Italy-EUR, Brexit-GDP, tariffs/oil - Asia FX) too large to ignore.  Recent Fed comments suggest they will raise rates for some time, Amazon wage hikes gel with a tightening labor market, and US ISM reports are very strong.  Breakevens and term premium estimates have hardly moved this year and point to upside risk for US yields.

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year.  While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all that much in the last year or two, the USD experienced a broad-based rise in line with the rise in US yields today.  The rise in yields is too sharp, and risks surrounding other currencies (Italy-EUR, Brexit-GDP, tariffs/oil - Asia FX) too large to ignore.  Recent Fed comments suggest they will raise rates for some time, Amazon wage hikes gel with a tightening labor market, and US ISM reports are very strong.  Breakevens and term premium estimates have hardly moved this year and point to upside risk for US yields. 

CAD has shot up in recent sessions as the NAFTA cloud has been lifted.  These may not be great levels to buy CAD, but it could continue to strengthen as inflation pressure builds and oil prices rise to new highs.  EUR has dropped on Italian budget risks.  Eurozone core inflation slipped in September and economic survey data remain subdued. Event risk is too high to want to buy EUR yet.  USD/JPY may be up on higher US yields and some relief in EM markets.  JPY may also be weaker in line with the CNY and higher oil prices.  However, USD/JPY is approaching key resistance, the Nikkei is relatively strong, and Japanese inflation pressure may be higher than widely perceived.  The fall in AUD despite high energy prices is helping support the Australian trade balance, government balance and overall economy.  The Australian economy has out-performed official forecasts in the first half of the year and supports the case that the next move in rates will be higher.  However, risks emanating from China, US trade policy, EM markets and Australia’s housing market continue to undermine confidence in the AUD.

CAD has shot up in recent sessions as the NAFTA cloud has been lifted.  These may not be great levels to buy CAD, but it could continue to strengthen as inflation pressure builds and oil prices rise to new highs.  EUR has dropped on Italian budget risks.  Eurozone core inflation slipped in September and economic survey data remain subdued. Event risk is too high to want to buy EUR yet.  USD/JPY may be up on higher US yields and some relief in EM markets.  JPY may also be weaker in line with the CNY and higher oil prices.  However, USD/JPY is approaching key resistance, the Nikkei is relatively strong, and Japanese inflation pressure may be higher than widely perceived.  The fall in AUD despite high energy prices is helping support the Australian trade balance, government balance and overall economy.  The Australian economy has out-performed official forecasts in the first half of the year and supports the case that the next move in rates will be higher.  However, risks emanating from China, US trade policy, EM markets and Australia’s housing market continue to undermine confidence in the AUD.

Clouds Clear for CAD, but Shroud EUR and AUD

Hopes that the US and China will avert an all-out trade war and one low inflation print in the USA have sparked a ray of hope for emerging-market assets.  Hopes that UK PM May can navigate a Brexit plan through a fractured UK parliament have lifted the GBP.  The US mid-term elections are a risk for the continuity of US economic and trade policy.  In these days of extreme controversy over the leadership style of the US President, we cannot discount political chaos come November.  However, evidence of extreme tightening in the US labor market has kept US rates near their recent highs and may yet reassert USD strength.

Hopes that the US and China will avert an all-out trade war and one low inflation print in the USA have sparked a ray of hope for emerging-market assets.  Hopes that UK PM May can navigate a Brexit plan through a fractured UK parliament have lifted the GBP.  The US mid-term elections are a risk for the continuity of US economic and trade policy.  In these days of extreme controversy over the leadership style of the US President, we cannot discount political chaos come November.  However, evidence of extreme tightening in the US labor market has kept US rates near their recent highs and may yet reassert USD strength. 

Wading Through Event Risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed Policy, US Mid-Terms

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the economy and markets.  We expect this to push the USD to new highs in coming months, even if it points to longer-term risks for the US economy.  US Inflation pressure is a major risk for global asset prices, and the CPI data on Thursday may set the tone for the market as it contemplates further evidence of a tightening labor market.  Trade policy remains a weight on China and Asian markets.  There is no new news on Nafta, but a three-way deal with Canada still seems a likely outcome, helping support the CAD. The market expects no change in the ECB policy outlook.  Economic activity and inflation have been stable in recent months. However, European bank shares are significantly weaker, and Draghi is likely to display caution when facing probing questions on the multiple risks facing the region.

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the economy and markets.  We expect this to push the USD to new highs in coming months, even if it points to longer-term risks for the US economy.  US Inflation pressure is a major risk for global asset prices, and the CPI data on Thursday may set the tone for the market as it contemplates further evidence of a tightening labor market.  Trade policy remains a weight on China and Asian markets.  There is no new news on Nafta, but a three-way deal with Canada still seems a likely outcome, helping support the CAD. The market expects no change in the ECB policy outlook.  Economic activity and inflation have been stable in recent months. However, European bank shares are significantly weaker, and Draghi is likely to display caution when facing probing questions on the multiple risks facing the region.

The USA’s Late-Cycle Fiscal Adventure Kicks-In

Asian markets have stabilized awaiting fresh US-China trade talks.  Chinese policymakers may be more focused on stabilising the CNY and Chinese equities ahead of these talks, helping stabilise Asian markets.  Turkish asset markets remain in deep distress, notwithstanding some rebound in the TRL.  Italian markets are also likely to display ongoing stress.  Combined with fears over US sanctions on Iran Russia and Turkey, these risk factors are likely to prevent a significant recovery in EUR.  US bond yields have slipped in recent weeks, and we see increased risk that global market uncertainty generates negative feedback to US asset markets and economic confidence. More stable Asian asset markets, but ongoing heightened global uncertainty, particularly in Europe, may contribute to more sustained gains in the JPY.  Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and accusations of foreign currency manipulation may tend to further undermine global economic confidence and support the JPY.

Asian markets have stabilized awaiting fresh US-China trade talks.  Chinese policymakers may be more focused on stabilising the CNY and Chinese equities ahead of these talks, helping stabilise Asian markets.  Turkish asset markets remain in deep distress, notwithstanding some rebound in the TRL.  Italian markets are also likely to display ongoing stress.  Combined with fears over US sanctions on Iran Russia and Turkey, these risk factors are likely to prevent a significant recovery in EUR.  US bond yields have slipped in recent weeks, and we see increased risk that global market uncertainty generates negative feedback to US asset markets and economic confidence. More stable Asian asset markets, but ongoing heightened global uncertainty, particularly in Europe, may contribute to more sustained gains in the JPY.  Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and accusations of foreign currency manipulation may tend to further undermine global economic confidence and support the JPY.

USD Facing a Negative Feedback Loop, JPY Placed to Benefit More than EUR

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Old Skool Moves in US Yields and Dollar

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year. While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all...

Greg Gibbs

Clouds Clear for CAD, but Shroud EUR and AUD

CAD has shot up in recent sessions as the NAFTA cloud has been lifted. These may not be great levels to buy CAD, but it could continue to...

Greg Gibbs

Wading Through Event Risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed Policy, US Mid-Terms

Hopes that the US and China will avert an all-out trade war and one low inflation print in the USA have sparked a ray of hope for emerging-market...

Greg Gibbs

The USA’s Late-Cycle Fiscal Adventure Kicks-In

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the...

Greg Gibbs

USD Facing a Negative Feedback Loop, JPY Placed to Benefit More than EUR

Asian markets have stabilized awaiting fresh US-China trade talks. Chinese policymakers may be more focused on stabilising the CNY and Chinese...

Greg Gibbs

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