FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and China and recent weakness in global export confidence may keep Asian currencies under pressure.  China is courting the EU in trade relations to counter the risks of a US trade war.  The EU may find it can ease its trade risks while the US and China slug it out.

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and China and recent weakness in global export confidence may keep Asian currencies under pressure.  China is courting the EU in trade relations to counter the risks of a US trade war.  The EU may find it can ease its trade risks while the US and China slug it out. 

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a deeper vulnerability in investor confidence in China.  The US equity market started to show signs of negative feedback from the US administration’s protectionist policies.  The remarkably contradictory comments by Navarro breed even more confusion than normal over White House policy.  If economic and investor confidence has been unsettled in Asia and Europe, and the USA is starting to feel negative feedback from its own policies, gold may be poised for a recovery.

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a deeper vulnerability in investor confidence in China.  The US equity market started to show signs of negative feedback from the US administration’s protectionist policies.  The remarkably contradictory comments by Navarro breed even more confusion than normal over White House policy.  If economic and investor confidence has been unsettled in Asia and Europe, and the USA is starting to feel negative feedback from its own policies, gold may be poised for a recovery.

Negative Feedback from US Protectionist Policies May Boost Gold

ECB’s Praet signalled that the ECB is thinking about withdrawing from net asset purchases soon.  We should expect a plan at the next Governing Council meeting on 14-June for the APP beyond its current completion date in September.  Praet’s upbeat view on the Eurozone’s growth and progress on convergence to the ECB’s inflation target made no mention of the political upheaval in Italy and contagion to Eurozone financial markets, or the threat from US trade policy.  A key question is how would Italian credit spreads cope with the threat of fiscal expansion in Italy that defies EU rules in an environment where the ECB is no longer buying Italian assets.  EUR has lifted on Praet’s comments, bringing forward rate hike expectations more clearly into next year.  However wider credit spreads in the Eurozone have probably limited the upside for EUR.  A weakening ECB commitment to QE will not necessarily be good news for the EUR as the year progresses.

ECB’s Praet signalled that the ECB is thinking about withdrawing from net asset purchases soon.  We should expect a plan at the next Governing Council meeting on 14-June for the APP beyond its current completion date in September.  Praet’s upbeat view on the Eurozone’s growth and progress on convergence to the ECB’s inflation target made no mention of the political upheaval in Italy and contagion to Eurozone financial markets, or the threat from US trade policy.  A key question is how would Italian credit spreads cope with the threat of fiscal expansion in Italy that defies EU rules in an environment where the ECB is no longer buying Italian assets.  EUR has lifted on Praet’s comments, bringing forward rate hike expectations more clearly into next year.  However wider credit spreads in the Eurozone have probably limited the upside for EUR.  A weakening ECB commitment to QE will not necessarily be good news for the EUR as the year progresses.

ECB’s Stepped up Plans to End QE May Not Be Good News for the EUR

The turn lower in the USD in recent sessions feels like a technical retreat from resistance.  It comes despite intensifying risk from a trade war, ongoing political risk in Italy and a tightening US labour market.  However, we are wary that the USD may continue to weaken in the near term.  Political risk in the USA is rising. A trade war could be seen as a threat to US hegemony and support for tariffs from the US public may waver. Global growth indicators have weakened, but there is scope for confidence to improve, even if risks remain elevated.  The Fed has sent mixed messages.  Longer term concerns over the US twin deficits could return.  The AUD outlook remains mixed.  Partial indicators point to more rapid economic recovery, but the housing market may be deteriorating.  Higher coal prices have boosted the terms of trade, but risks from a trade war and China’s regulatory crackdown on shadow-banking remain elevated.

The turn lower in the USD in recent sessions feels like a technical retreat from resistance.  It comes despite intensifying risk from a trade war, ongoing political risk in Italy and a tightening US labour market.  However, we are wary that the USD may continue to weaken in the near term.  Political risk in the USA is rising. A trade war could be seen as a threat to US hegemony and support for tariffs from the US public may waver. Global growth indicators have weakened, but there is scope for confidence to improve, even if risks remain elevated.  The Fed has sent mixed messages.  Longer term concerns over the US twin deficits could return.  The AUD outlook remains mixed.  Partial indicators point to more rapid economic recovery, but the housing market may be deteriorating.  Higher coal prices have boosted the terms of trade, but risks from a trade war and China’s regulatory crackdown on shadow-banking remain elevated.

A Bout of Optimism Amidst Intensifying Risks

Bank analysis is not my field of expertise, but as a macro analyst of FX markets, it is hard to ignore the rapid slide in Deutsche Bank’s (DB) share price.  DB is one of the top five Globally Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) as designated by the G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB).  It is around the 12th largest bank globally by total asset size ($1.5tn), and yet its market cap is now only $20bn. If it is called on the raise more capital this would be a problem.  Its share price performance suggests it is highly influenced by the political risk in Italy.  We should add DB’s rapid slide in share price this year (down over 40% to revisit record lows in 2016) as a risk factor for global financial stability and in particular the Eurozone.  Considering Populists are taking over in Italy, the Spanish government is set to fall, and Trump is pursuing trade restrictions on the EU, the outlook for EUR is getting murky.

Bank analysis is not my field of expertise, but as a macro analyst of FX markets, it is hard to ignore the rapid slide in Deutsche Bank’s (DB) share price.  DB is one of the top five Globally Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) as designated by the G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB).  It is around the 12th largest bank globally by total asset size ($1.5tn), and yet its market cap is now only $20bn. If it is called on the raise more capital this would be a problem.  Its share price performance suggests it is highly influenced by the political risk in Italy.  We should add DB’s rapid slide in share price this year (down over 40% to revisit record lows in 2016) as a risk factor for global financial stability and in particular the Eurozone.  Considering Populists are taking over in Italy, the Spanish government is set to fall, and Trump is pursuing trade restrictions on the EU, the outlook for EUR is getting murky.

Add Deutsche Bank to the List of Risks for the EUR and Global Markets

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

GBP May Be in a Sweet Spot

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat...

Greg Gibbs

Negative Feedback from US Protectionist Policies May Boost Gold

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a...

Greg Gibbs

ECB’s Stepped up Plans to End QE May Not Be Good News for the EUR

ECB’s Praet signalled that the ECB is thinking about withdrawing from net asset purchases soon. We should expect a plan at the next Governing...

Greg Gibbs

A Bout of Optimism Amidst Intensifying Risks

The turn lower in the USD in recent sessions feels like a technical retreat from resistance. It comes despite intensifying risk from a trade war,...

Greg Gibbs

Add Deutsche Bank to the List of Risks for the EUR and Global Markets

Bank analysis is not my field of expertise, but as a macro analyst of FX markets, it is hard to ignore the rapid slide in Deutsche Bank’s (DB)...

Greg Gibbs

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