FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias.  It has failed to benefit much from a fall in the USD against most currencies in a risk-on move following the US labor data.  Eurozone economic momentum has eased in recent surveys, and this is reflected in new lows in the EUR/USD short, long and real yield spreads.  Furthermore, inflation expectations have eased in the Eurozone, and its equity market has underperformed recently.  US protectionist rhetoric has become more focused against the Eurozone. AUD resilient despite softer commodity prices recently.

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias.  It has failed to benefit much from a fall in the USD against most currencies in a risk-on move following the US labor data.  Eurozone economic momentum has eased in recent surveys, and this is reflected in new lows in the EUR/USD short, long and real yield spreads.  Furthermore, inflation expectations have eased in the Eurozone, and its equity market has underperformed recently.  US protectionist rhetoric has become more focused against the Eurozone. AUD resilient despite softer commodity prices recently.

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias.  That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook deteriorated.Specifically, the removed sentence was: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.”Some, not all, analysts thought that…

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias.  That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook deteriorated.Specifically, the removed sentence was: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.”Some, not all, analysts thought that…

Draghi Take Outs – EUR Weaker Despite the Removal of Easing Bias

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind.

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind. 

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies, including EUR and AUD, appear to be more at risk than the USD.  USD/JPY may be finding a base after testing significant support near 105.  The Fed has turned somewhat more hawkish, the US economy has gained momentum, the Euro economy has lost some momentum and the Italian economy is likely to suffer in the political wilderness.

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies, including EUR and AUD, appear to be more at risk than the USD.  USD/JPY may be finding a base after testing significant support near 105.  The Fed has turned somewhat more hawkish, the US economy has gained momentum, the Euro economy has lost some momentum and the Italian economy is likely to suffer in the political wilderness. 

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or long term yields, real or nominal.  This has made it hard to predict USD exchange rates, generating uncertainty and a pervasive bearishness towards the USD that is hard to shake.  However, we may have got to a point where the USD has become so significantly stretched from yield spreads that it is resisting further depreciation.  Furthermore, US economic activity and inflation risks have accelerated compared to most other countries.

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or long term yields, real or nominal.  This has made it hard to predict USD exchange rates, generating uncertainty and a pervasive bearishness towards the USD that is hard to shake.  However, we may have got to a point where the USD has become so significantly stretched from yield spreads that it is resisting further depreciation.  Furthermore, US economic activity and inflation risks have accelerated compared to most other countries.

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Cracks Widening in EUR’s Foundations

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias. It has failed to benefit much from a fall in...

Greg Gibbs

Draghi Take Outs – EUR Weaker Despite the Removal of Easing Bias

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias. That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Vs. Free Trade Orthodoxy

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an...

Greg Gibbs

EUR and AUD Risks Ignored for How Long?

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies,...

Greg Gibbs

Time for the USD to Fight-Back

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)