FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday.  Asian currencies led the fall, enthusiastically followed by developed market currencies, including EUR and GBP.  Political uncertainty continues to undermine the USD.  Trump’s battles with Senator Corker, the NFL, North Korea, Iran, the media, and Democrats over ‘Dreamers’ creates a sense of chaos that dampens prospects for tax reform.  Global economic recovery continues to support global equity markets, and investors are more willing to take EM currency exposure to avoid elevated political risk in the USA.  EM currencies have lagged a rebound in EM equities in the last two weeks and started to play catch-up on Tuesday.  Strong German factory orders, industrial production, and exports support the EUR.  Sentix Eurozone investor confidence also rose to a new high and Spanish separatist threats have eased.  A global economic recovery is dragging the UK along for the ride, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate hikes. UK political risk may now ease from elevated levels.

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday.  Asian currencies led the fall, enthusiastically followed by developed market currencies, including EUR and GBP.  Political uncertainty continues to undermine the USD.  Trump’s battles with Senator Corker, the NFL, North Korea, Iran, the media, and Democrats over ‘Dreamers’ creates a sense of chaos that dampens prospects for tax reform.  Global economic recovery continues to support global equity markets, and investors are more willing to take EM currency exposure to avoid elevated political risk in the USA.  EM currencies have lagged a rebound in EM equities in the last two weeks and started to play catch-up on Tuesday.  Strong German factory orders, industrial production, and exports support the EUR.  Sentix Eurozone investor confidence also rose to a new high and Spanish separatist threats have eased.  A global economic recovery is dragging the UK along for the ride, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate hikes. UK political risk may now ease from elevated levels.

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD.  It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political uncertainty in the US.  Stronger global growth has supported EM, and the EUR has rebounded on declining European political uncertainty and a solid European economic recovery.  Lower than expected US inflation outcomes have also put the market in two-minds over the pace of Fed policy tightening. North Korean tension has, if anything, only tended to weaken the USD further, strengthening the JPY, while having little discernable impact on the bullish trend for equities and EM markets.  However, in recent weeks these trends have reversed to some extent.  The market feels a bit full on its exposure to EUR, EM, and equities.

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD.  It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political uncertainty in the US.  Stronger global growth has supported EM, and the EUR has rebounded on declining European political uncertainty and a solid European economic recovery.  Lower than expected US inflation outcomes have also put the market in two-minds over the pace of Fed policy tightening. North Korean tension has, if anything, only tended to weaken the USD further, strengthening the JPY, while having little discernable impact on the bullish trend for equities and EM markets.  However, in recent weeks these trends have reversed to some extent.  The market feels a bit full on its exposure to EUR, EM, and equities. 

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda.  US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week.  They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in recent months that has not been given much consideration due to a variety of home-grown and global distractions.  Low yielders, JPY and EUR may be particularly vulnerable.  EUR may be in correction mode from an over-extended and excessively consensus bullish view.  The ECB will continue to emphasize a slow removal of monetary accommodation.

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda.  US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week.  They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in recent months that has not been given much consideration due to a variety of home-grown and global distractions.  Low yielders, JPY and EUR may be particularly vulnerable.  EUR may be in correction mode from an over-extended and excessively consensus bullish view.  The ECB will continue to emphasize a slow removal of monetary accommodation. 

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday. Asian...

Greg Gibbs

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month. It...

Greg Gibbs

Tide Turns Dollar Bullish

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD. It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political...

Greg Gibbs

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its...

Greg Gibbs

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week. However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their...

Greg Gibbs

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