FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

In our report last week, (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bond-yields-in-driver-s-seat-time-for-correction-in-equities-and-the-usd" target="_blank">Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan</a>), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

The NOK depreciation sequence started in September 2017 is not over yet.EURNOK and USDNOK are both approaching from new significant support levels with bottomish indicators, advocating for a 3.5/5.00% depreciation move. Preference for EURNOK to rise considering EURUSD midterm bullish outlook.EURNOK volatility 1-month expected to pick up above 7% towards 9%.NOK also expected to underperform in the midterm against SEK, with NOKSEK anticipated lower below 1.0350 towards 1.0050/0.9850.Therefore…

The NOK depreciation sequence started in September 2017 is not over yet.EURNOK and USDNOK are both approaching from new significant support levels with bottomish indicators, advocating for a 3.5/5.00% depreciation move. Preference for EURNOK to rise considering EURUSD midterm bullish outlook.EURNOK volatility 1-month expected to pick up above 7% towards 9%.NOK also expected to underperform in the midterm against SEK, with NOKSEK anticipated lower below 1.0350 towards 1.0050/0.9850.Therefore…

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial products, like ETFs, are widely expected.  If it does grow in stature as a store of value, its fair value is conservatively $50,000 in our view.  It may not be a coincidence that as financial stress in China creeps up, and Trump throws Middle East peace under a bus, demand for bitcoin picks up.  There may even be evidence that investors are starting to rotate out of gold towards Bitcoin; a shift from the old world haven to the haven for the digital world.  The grumpy old men of finance are dismissing Bitcoin as a bubble.  It probably is, but one that is blowing up, and may do so much further.  The bearish consensus view for the USD is getting harder to square with its improved yield advantage and strong economic outlook.  Tighter USD short funding costs, position squaring and seasonal strength may propel the USD higher into year-end.  EM markets are tiring into year-end.

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial products, like ETFs, are widely expected.  If it does grow in stature as a store of value, its fair value is conservatively $50,000 in our view.  It may not be a coincidence that as financial stress in China creeps up, and Trump throws Middle East peace under a bus, demand for bitcoin picks up.  There may even be evidence that investors are starting to rotate out of gold towards Bitcoin; a shift from the old world haven to the haven for the digital world.  The grumpy old men of finance are dismissing Bitcoin as a bubble.  It probably is, but one that is blowing up, and may do so much further.  The bearish consensus view for the USD is getting harder to square with its improved yield advantage and strong economic outlook.  Tighter USD short funding costs, position squaring and seasonal strength may propel the USD higher into year-end.  EM markets are tiring into year-end.

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations hanging over the CAD outlook, a significant change in policy direction in New Zealand, German coalition negotiations, and political uncertainty has never been far from mind in the US in the Trump era.  Japan is a source of stability, supporting its equities, not its currency.

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations hanging over the CAD outlook, a significant change in policy direction in New Zealand, German coalition negotiations, and political uncertainty has never been far from mind in the US in the Trump era.  Japan is a source of stability, supporting its equities, not its currency.

Political Risk for a Number of Currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD)

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

USD Rebound Is a Creeper

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields...

Greg Gibbs

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and...

Greg Gibbs

NOK Depreciation Not over Yet

The NOK depreciation sequence started in September 2017 is not over yet.EURNOK and USDNOK are both approaching from new significant support levels...

Guillaume Coutant

Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin

Bitcoin has exploded higher in recent weeks as futures trading draws near, slated for next week on the CME, and other mainstream financial...

Greg Gibbs

Political Risk for a Number of Currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD)

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)