FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally.  Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic recovery outside of the US has gained momentum, attracting capital flow to emerging markets.  Geopolitical risks have boosted JPY and gold, while lessened Trump’s desire to pursue trade restrictions against China. US economic activity in Q1 has been sub-trend and recent inflation data has softened, lessening the urgency for Fed policy tightening. Trump has called for a weaker USD and said he likes low-interest rates, reversing his pre-election basis for criticizing Fed Chair Yellen. UK PM May has inspired a break-up in the GBP that may build momentum if she can campaign effectively and strengthen her grip on power.  The first round French election this weekend may help lift political uncertainty and spur a recovery in EUR. On Tuesday, Trump again promised big policy strides on tax, infrastructure, and healthcare, railed against NAFTA, and signed an executive order to review the USA skilled visa program and renew a Federal policy to buy and hire American.  Early in his still short presidency, such actions might have boosted the USD and US equities.  The market is now more focused on results rather than rhetoric.

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally.  Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic recovery outside of the US has gained momentum, attracting capital flow to emerging markets.  Geopolitical risks have boosted JPY and gold, while lessened Trump’s desire to pursue trade restrictions against China. US economic activity in Q1 has been sub-trend and recent inflation data has softened, lessening the urgency for Fed policy tightening. Trump has called for a weaker USD and said he likes low-interest rates, reversing his pre-election basis for criticizing Fed Chair Yellen. UK PM May has inspired a break-up in the GBP that may build momentum if she can campaign effectively and strengthen her grip on power.  The first round French election this weekend may help lift political uncertainty and spur a recovery in EUR. On Tuesday, Trump again promised big policy strides on tax, infrastructure, and healthcare, railed against NAFTA, and signed an executive order to review the USA skilled visa program and renew a Federal policy to buy and hire American.  Early in his still short presidency, such actions might have boosted the USD and US equities.  The market is now more focused on results rather than rhetoric.

May's Bid to Boost Power, Trump's Words Lose Power

Geopolitical risk appears elevated after recent events in Syria, Tillerson en route to Russia, US warships en route to the Korean Peninsula, and reports of Chinese troops moving towards the North Korean border.  These developments are providing support for JPY and gold, and keeping global asset markets on edge, trading in choppy ranges.  However, rising geopolitical risk is helping revive confidence in the Trump administration and reduce political risk in the USA.  The improvement in Trump administration performance may prove more durable and lift yields and help support the USD as geopolitical risk fades, reversing recent gains in JPY and gold.  The USA labor data had no smoking gun on inflation, but revealed further tightening in the labor market and will keep the Fed on a path to gradually tighten rates and begin to dis-invest in Treasuries and Agency MBS later this year.  Recent flattening in the US yield curve may also reverse if geopolitical risk recedes.  Nerves over the French election are rising as the race for the first round tightens.  EUR is languishing near recent lows.  If Macron makes it to the second round on 23 April and Le Pen achieves little more than a quarter of the vote, EUR may start to recover.  The probability of a Macron victory should rise in a head-to-head run-off with Le Pen.

Geopolitical risk appears elevated after recent events in Syria, Tillerson en route to Russia, US warships en route to the Korean Peninsula, and reports of Chinese troops moving towards the North Korean border.  These developments are providing support for JPY and gold, and keeping global asset markets on edge, trading in choppy ranges.  However, rising geopolitical risk is helping revive confidence in the Trump administration and reduce political risk in the USA.  The improvement in Trump administration performance may prove more durable and lift yields and help support the USD as geopolitical risk fades, reversing recent gains in JPY and gold.  The USA labor data had no smoking gun on inflation, but revealed further tightening in the labor market and will keep the Fed on a path to gradually tighten rates and begin to dis-invest in Treasuries and Agency MBS later this year.  Recent flattening in the US yield curve may also reverse if geopolitical risk recedes.  Nerves over the French election are rising as the race for the first round tightens.  EUR is languishing near recent lows.  If Macron makes it to the second round on 23 April and Le Pen achieves little more than a quarter of the vote, EUR may start to recover.  The probability of a Macron victory should rise in a head-to-head run-off with Le Pen.

As Geopolitical Risk Rises, US Political Risk Eases

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Today the German manufacturing PMI number came in at 58.3. The Greek equivalent was 46.7. The gap of 11.6 points is the largest it has been with the exception of the two months of July and August 2015  at the height of the Greek referendum campaign on Euro membership.  The diverging fortunes of the two economies is as stark as ever.  While total employment in Germany has grown 7% from its 2008 high, employment in Greece is down 21% from its pre-crisis high. Taylor rules are suggesting that the…

Today the German manufacturing PMI number came in at 58.3. The Greek equivalent was 46.7. The gap of 11.6 points is the largest it has been with the exception of the two months of July and August 2015  at the height of the Greek referendum campaign on Euro membership.  The diverging fortunes of the two economies is as stark as ever.  While total employment in Germany has grown 7% from its 2008 high, employment in Greece is down 21% from its pre-crisis high. Taylor rules are suggesting that the…

Money Matters: Greek / Germany Divergence.

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China, and central banks that are sending mixed signals.  There are contradictions in the market with very high consumer confidence in the USA, but a deteriorating approval rating for President Trump. Strong surveys, but modest economic activity readings. Ongoing optimism for tax reform in the US equity markets, but doubts apparent in somewhat lower US bond yields.  We continue to see risks of the Trump aura in equities fading on the tough road to tax reform.  This could undermine the USD further in coming months.  The EUR may benefit as evidence of recovery builds and French political risks fade.

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China, and central banks that are sending mixed signals.  There are contradictions in the market with very high consumer confidence in the USA, but a deteriorating approval rating for President Trump. Strong surveys, but modest economic activity readings. Ongoing optimism for tax reform in the US equity markets, but doubts apparent in somewhat lower US bond yields.  We continue to see risks of the Trump aura in equities fading on the tough road to tax reform.  This could undermine the USD further in coming months.  The EUR may benefit as evidence of recovery builds and French political risks fade. 

The outlook for the USD looks weaker on a number of counts – Trump optimism has faded, the Fed has emphasized a gradual approach, and recent US economic data is more mixed.  In contrast, political risk is ebbing in the Eurozone and activity indicators have accelerated.  US equities look relatively expensive, and the market may view EUR as basing, looking ahead to the time when ECB ends its QE/NIRP.  AUD has significantly underperformed over the last two weeks.  It appears to be undermined by angst over its domestic housing market, energy shortages and broader political uncertainty leading up to the May budget. Higher interest rates and corporate bond yields in China and ebbing iron ore prices may also be dampening the AUD.

The outlook for the USD looks weaker on a number of counts – Trump optimism has faded, the Fed has emphasized a gradual approach, and recent US economic data is more mixed.  In contrast, political risk is ebbing in the Eurozone and activity indicators have accelerated.  US equities look relatively expensive, and the market may view EUR as basing, looking ahead to the time when ECB ends its QE/NIRP.  AUD has significantly underperformed over the last two weeks.  It appears to be undermined by angst over its domestic housing market, energy shortages and broader political uncertainty leading up to the May budget. Higher interest rates and corporate bond yields in China and ebbing iron ore prices may also be dampening the AUD.

USA Confidence Fades, EUR Fortunes Rise, AUD Angst Builds

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

May's Bid to Boost Power, Trump's Words Lose Power

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally. Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic...

Greg Gibbs

As Geopolitical Risk Rises, US Political Risk Eases

Geopolitical risk appears elevated after recent events in Syria, Tillerson en route to Russia, US warships en route to the Korean Peninsula, and...

Greg Gibbs

Money Matters: Greek / Germany Divergence.

Today the German manufacturing PMI number came in at 58.3. The Greek equivalent was 46.7. The gap of 11.6 points is the largest it has been with...

Stewart Paterson

Uncertainty and Contradictions

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China,...

Greg Gibbs

USA Confidence Fades, EUR Fortunes Rise, AUD Angst Builds

The outlook for the USD looks weaker on a number of counts – Trump optimism has faded, the Fed has emphasized a gradual approach, and recent US...

Greg Gibbs

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