FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD is weaker as the US election takes on deeply disturbing characteristics that may have long-lived implications for political stability and leadership.  There may be a modest relief rally on a Clinton victory, but fears that her opponents will seek to have her impeached throughout her term in office will keep confidence in check. The USA economy has been growing modestly and lacks clear momentum.  It remains to be seen if it can shake off the political malaise and drive the case for higher interest rates. Outside of the USA, there have been signs of improvement in economic growth in several large emerging economies and Europe.  Industrial and agricultural commodity prices, with the exception of oil, also appear to support the notion of a more favorable supply and demand balance and rising inflation pressure.  This improves the outlook for emerging market and commodity currencies, the EUR and GBP.  The outlook for the USD is less clear, and JPY may weaken as yields tend to rise in other countries.  However, uncertainty remains high on several fronts including, Brexit, oil prices, USA election, and Chinese financial stability.

The USD is weaker as the US election takes on deeply disturbing characteristics that may have long-lived implications for political stability and leadership.  There may be a modest relief rally on a Clinton victory, but fears that her opponents will seek to have her impeached throughout her term in office will keep confidence in check. The USA economy has been growing modestly and lacks clear momentum.  It remains to be seen if it can shake off the political malaise and drive the case for higher interest rates. Outside of the USA, there have been signs of improvement in economic growth in several large emerging economies and Europe.  Industrial and agricultural commodity prices, with the exception of oil, also appear to support the notion of a more favorable supply and demand balance and rising inflation pressure.  This improves the outlook for emerging market and commodity currencies, the EUR and GBP.  The outlook for the USD is less clear, and JPY may weaken as yields tend to rise in other countries.  However, uncertainty remains high on several fronts including, Brexit, oil prices, USA election, and Chinese financial stability.

Improving Growth Outside the USA and Political Instability Inside

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 30 October 2016Dollar topping processTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/XsNifxix" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/XsNifxix</a> 13:51 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/573/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1477795990" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15573"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>DXY – Touted trimming at 99+ in currencies that look extended (TRY, SGD for example). Euro held 1.08 which puts pressure on the DXY and the dollar in a broader sense. How the Euro reacts early this week is key for the DXY bias. This is the part of the topping cycle that gets tricky with risk we fade below ideal resistance. We may very well…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 30 October 2016Dollar topping processTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/XsNifxix 13:51 min.FX webcastDXY – Touted trimming at 99+ in currencies that look extended (TRY, SGD for example). Euro held 1.08 which puts pressure on the DXY and the dollar in a broader sense. How the Euro reacts early this week is key for the DXY bias. This is the part of the topping cycle that gets tricky with risk we fade below ideal resistance. We may very well…

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months.  UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for a weaker and more volatile GBP is established and the government moves towards an easier fiscal policy, further contributing to higher global yields.  Recent economic activity and inflation indicators (headline CPI and long-term break-evens) in the UK and Eurozone support the rising trend in their yields.  The market continues to expect an extension of QE in the Eurozone and appears more sensitive to any hint that the extension may be limited or the pace of purchases tapered.  The case for higher yields is less clear in the US with mixed economic reports, but activity appears stable and the outlook may improve post-election.  Japanese yields have been much more stable since the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control.  If the rising trend in global yields persists, we expect Japanese yields to remain more stable, creating higher yield support for other currencies against the JPY.

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months.  UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for a weaker and more volatile GBP is established and the government moves towards an easier fiscal policy, further contributing to higher global yields.  Recent economic activity and inflation indicators (headline CPI and long-term break-evens) in the UK and Eurozone support the rising trend in their yields.  The market continues to expect an extension of QE in the Eurozone and appears more sensitive to any hint that the extension may be limited or the pace of purchases tapered.  The case for higher yields is less clear in the US with mixed economic reports, but activity appears stable and the outlook may improve post-election.  Japanese yields have been much more stable since the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control.  If the rising trend in global yields persists, we expect Japanese yields to remain more stable, creating higher yield support for other currencies against the JPY.

Bund Yields Leading Global Yields Higher, Lifting EUR/JPY Yield Support

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 23 October 2016DXY 99.50To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/UCNbUkZm" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/UCNbUkZm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1477273790372000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHR6xvNfhECLWKkeL1ePS7EfTKOzA">http://www.screencast.com/t/UCNbUkZm</a> 11:47 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/155/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1477187467" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15155"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>DXY 98.50 target met and surpassed. Pattern resistance is rising toward the 99+ area and with time would edge toward the macro 100 barrier. Fresh support comes in at recent congestion low at 98.10. Above 99 we will start locking in gains in a number of EM currencies. We are watching the Euro 1.08 level and DXY 99+ to fine tune a top. A Euro break below 1.08…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 23 October 2016DXY 99.50To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/UCNbUkZm 11:47 min.FX webcastDXY 98.50 target met and surpassed. Pattern resistance is rising toward the 99+ area and with time would edge toward the macro 100 barrier. Fresh support comes in at recent congestion low at 98.10. Above 99 we will start locking in gains in a number of EM currencies. We are watching the Euro 1.08 level and DXY 99+ to fine tune a top. A Euro break below 1.08…

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling over to several emerging markets through direct links to their currencies or via currency basket regimes.  Commodity currencies and some emerging market currencies that are less influenced by these weaker major currencies, with more stable political environments, have performed solidly against the USD. We may continue to see weakness in non-dollar major currencies, provided the US economy and rates outlook remains stable. And we may see more spillover to some EM currencies in coming weeks.  Both EUR and JPY appear to be developing more sustained weaker trends and they may have some way to unwind excess gains in the first half of the year as vicious cycles turn to virtuous ones (related to rising global bond yields).  In essence, their currencies may weaken in response to their negative interest rates, improving inflation expectations, and a sense that their easy monetary policies are succeeding in holding down real yields. This may tend to perpetuate the recent trend towards a weaker EUR and JPY and relatively strong, if not outright strength, in commodity currencies. However, higher global bond yields may also tend to undermine currencies that have relied on flows into their bond market from investors seeking higher yield in an, until recent weeks, diminishing global yield environment.

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling over to several emerging markets through direct links to their currencies or via currency basket regimes.  Commodity currencies and some emerging market currencies that are less influenced by these weaker major currencies, with more stable political environments, have performed solidly against the USD. We may continue to see weakness in non-dollar major currencies, provided the US economy and rates outlook remains stable. And we may see more spillover to some EM currencies in coming weeks.  Both EUR and JPY appear to be developing more sustained weaker trends and they may have some way to unwind excess gains in the first half of the year as vicious cycles turn to virtuous ones (related to rising global bond yields).  In essence, their currencies may weaken in response to their negative interest rates, improving inflation expectations, and a sense that their easy monetary policies are succeeding in holding down real yields. This may tend to perpetuate the recent trend towards a weaker EUR and JPY and relatively strong, if not outright strength, in commodity currencies. However, higher global bond yields may also tend to undermine currencies that have relied on flows into their bond market from investors seeking higher yield in an, until recent weeks, diminishing global yield environment. 

Weaker EUR & JPY, Stronger Commodity Currencies

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Improving Growth Outside the USA and Political Instability Inside

The USD is weaker as the US election takes on deeply disturbing characteristics that may have long-lived implications for political stability and...

Greg Gibbs

US Dollar Topping Process

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 30 October 2016Dollar topping processTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/XsNifxix 13:51 min.DXY –...

Thomas Schroeder

Bund Yields Leading Global Yields Higher, Lifting EUR/JPY Yield Support

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months. UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for...

Greg Gibbs

Fine Tuning DXY Top Zone

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 23 October 2016DXY 99.50To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/UCNbUkZm 11:47 min.DXY 98.50 target...

Thomas Schroeder

Weaker EUR & JPY, Stronger Commodity Currencies

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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